Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years </li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%</li>
<li>MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales</li>
</ul>


Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years 
Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%
MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales


Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

<ul>
<li>Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey</li>
<li>The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending</li>
<li>With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta</li>
</ul>


Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey
The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending
With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta


Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

<ul>
<li>Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks</li>
<li>Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income</li>
<li>Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore</li>
</ul>


Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks
Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income
Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore


Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

Japan

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

Price Gauge
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Chiba Bank (8331 JP)

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Japan's banks are seeing good loan volume and diffusion index on Tankan Survey and loan officer survey suggests there is more to come. Selling...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)