Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.</li><li>These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.</li><li>While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.</li></ul>

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Podcast series by Dean Curnutt, Alpha Exchange

Alpha Exchange

Podcast series by Dean Curnutt

The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.

<ul><li>Recent market disruptions, including a dramatic rally in the yen and a significant increase in the VIX, have raised concerns</li><li>The convergence of US and Japan CPI rates may have contributed to the narrowing of Fed BoJ policy spread</li><li>The VIX's large move on August 5, 2019, has sparked concerns about the stability of the S&amp;P options market and the potential impact on global risk levels</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent market disruptions, including a dramatic rally in the yen and a significant increase in the VIX, have raised concernsThe convergence of US and Japan CPI rates may have contributed to the narrowing of Fed BoJ policy spreadThe VIX's large move on August 5, 2019, has sparked concerns about the stability of the S&amp;P options market and the potential impact on global risk levelsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast by Jim Grant on high finance, Grant's Current Yield Podcast

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast

Podcast by Jim Grant on high finance

Grant's Current Yield Podcast

You've read their prose. Now hear their voices. Listen to Jim Grant and Evan Lorenz talk high finance, Grant's-style, with plenty of wit and historical context to enliven their discussion of today's foremost investment topics. Welcome to Grant's Radio!

<ul><li>VIX has become lively, reintroducing volatility to the markets</li><li>Small caps are gaining attention after being neglected for years</li><li>Discussion on credit cycles and potential risks in commercial real estate market, with a focus on interest rates and property values</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

VIX has become lively, reintroducing volatility to the marketsSmall caps are gaining attention after being neglected for yearsDiscussion on credit cycles and potential risks in commercial real estate market, with a focus on interest rates and property valuesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

VIX Went Cray Cray

The market was impacted by events such as the Yen's rally, Japan's monetary policy, the VIX hitting 65, and the unique risks in March 2020.

Alpha Exchange

THE NEXT MELTDOWN

Overall, the financial world is facing volatility and challenges, with experts like Richard Byrne offering insights on credit, market cycles, and...

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research