Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Volatility is sequential and the turbulence and illiquidity in forex and bond markets will inevitably spread to equities? A CRASH could be coming!</li>
<li>VIX has already moved up, but this barely acknowledges volatility elsewhere. The VIX always sees greater volatility because it includes the effects of economic volatility as the business cycle breaks</li>
<li>Upcoming World recession seems set to force the VIX above 50 index points. Stay ‘risk-off’ and choose ‘carry’ at the front-end of yield curves</li>
</ul>


Volatility is sequential and the turbulence and illiquidity in forex and bond markets will inevitably spread to equities? A CRASH could be coming!
VIX has already moved up, but this barely acknowledges volatility elsewhere. The VIX always sees greater volatility because it includes the effects of economic volatility as the business cycle breaks
Upcoming World recession seems set to force the VIX above 50 index points. Stay ‘risk-off’ and choose ‘carry’ at the front-end of yield curves


A Coming Crash: The Law of Conservation of Financial Volatility?

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips</li><li>Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year</li><li>Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower</li></ul>

The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dipsMuch of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last yearConfidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell</li>
<li>Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears</li>
<li>The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action</li>
</ul>


Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell
Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears
The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ukraine - Russia war has started and markets imploded today. </li>
<li>Rotation from growth to value will continue and stay invested.</li>
<li>Inverse ETF and Vix should help to manage volatility in this turbulent time.</li>
</ul>


Ukraine - Russia war has started and markets imploded today. 
Rotation from growth to value will continue and stay invested.
Inverse ETF and Vix should help to manage volatility in this turbulent time.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Investors want greater clarity about the future path of US interest rates. The Fed missed the opportunity to provide this information this week, sowing the seeds for financial market volatility. </li>
<li>Choppy growth due to the omicron COVID-19 variant and high inflation stoke stagflation fears. The bond market is convinced that COVID-19 will not distract the Fed from tightening policy.</li>
<li>Many of today's equity investors have not experienced a Fed tightening cycle due to rising inflation, thereby rendering their hopes of another Fed Put as being unrealistic. </li>
</ul>


Investors want greater clarity about the future path of US interest rates. The Fed missed the opportunity to provide this information this week, sowing the seeds for financial market volatility. 
Choppy growth due to the omicron COVID-19 variant and high inflation stoke stagflation fears. The bond market is convinced that COVID-19 will not distract the Fed from tightening policy.
Many of today's equity investors have not experienced a Fed tightening cycle due to rising inflation, thereby rendering their hopes of another Fed Put as being unrealistic. 


Financial Markets Demand Greater Clarity from the Fed About the Future Path of Interest Rates

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

A Coming Crash: The Law of Conservation of Financial Volatility?

Volatility is sequential. Forex and bond market volatility will morph into equities and possibly trigger a crash. The VIX deserves to be above 50....

Michael J. Howell

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra...

Mark Tinker

The MAD Report - Cross Market Analysis

A weekly report looking at price action across major markets. In the short term both a stock market and a bond market squeeze seem possible in the...

Shyam Devani

War: What to Do?

Inverse index ETF or long volatility will reduce vol although it will not save the portfolio from having a negative month for long-only investors.

Henry Soediarko

Financial Markets Demand Greater Clarity from the Fed About the Future Path of Interest Rates

Financial markets are demanding greater Fed policy clarity. Chair Powell failed to provide this after the latest FOMC meeting. Elevated volatility...

DeSaque Macro Research