IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40108:1" rel="noopener">GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM)</a> is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. Pricing is on 1 October.</li>
<li>I discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mynt-gcash-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:249615" rel="noopener">Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case</a>. I have updated my view and forecasts for the 2Q results.</li>
<li>My view is incrementally bearish due to escalating regulatory risk, declining sequential quarterly growth/margin, ongoing pressure in payment solutions, and stretched valuation. </li>
</ul>



GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. Pricing is on 1 October.
I discussed the IPO in Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case. I have updated my view and forecasts for the 2Q results.
My view is incrementally bearish due to escalating regulatory risk, declining sequential quarterly growth/margin, ongoing pressure in payment solutions, and stretched valuation. 


Mynt (GCash) IPO: 2Q and Valuation Update

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Betterment hit $215M in revenue in 2024, up 41% year-over-year from $153M in 2023.</li><li>Betterment's AUM continued growing through 2025 and into 2026, reaching $55B+ by February 2025, $65B+ by November 2025, and $70B+ by August 2026.</li><li>Betterment acquired Ellevest's automated investing business in February 2025, transferring approximately $1.1B in AUM from ~70,000 clients in mid-April 2025.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Betterment hit $215M in revenue in 2024, up 41% year-over-year from $153M in 2023.Betterment's AUM continued growing through 2025 and into 2026, reaching $55B+ by February 2025, $65B+ by November 2025, and $70B+ by August 2026.Betterment acquired Ellevest's automated investing business in February 2025, transferring approximately $1.1B in AUM from ~70,000 clients in mid-April 2025.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40108:1" rel="noopener">GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM)</a> is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mynt-gcash-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:249615" rel="noopener">Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. The pricing date is 28 September.</li>
</ul>



GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion.
I previously discussed the IPO in Mynt (GCash) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. The pricing date is 28 September.


<ul><li>Revolut generated £4.5B ($6.0B) in revenue in 2025, up ~50% year-over-year from £3.1B ($4.0B) in FY2024, with profit before tax of £1.7B ($2.3B, 38% PBT margin, +57% YoY) and net profit of £1.3B ($1.7B).</li><li>Management has set a long-term target of reaching 100M retail customers by mid-2027 across 100+ countries, supported by a $13B five-year investment commitment.</li><li>Revolut confirmed it had begun a company-sponsored secondary share sale at $2,017 per share, implying a $115 billion valuation and targeting at least $750 million of existing shares.</li></ul>

Revolut generated £4.5B ($6.0B) in revenue in 2025, up ~50% year-over-year from £3.1B ($4.0B) in FY2024, with profit before tax of £1.7B ($2.3B, 38% PBT margin, +57% YoY) and net profit of £1.3B ($1.7B).Management has set a long-term target of reaching 100M retail customers by mid-2027 across 100+ countries, supported by a $13B five-year investment commitment.Revolut confirmed it had begun a company-sponsored secondary share sale at $2,017 per share, implying a $115 billion valuation and targeting at least $750 million of existing shares.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Gusto generated $975M of revenue in 2025, up 30% year-over-year from $750M in 2024.</li><li>The customer base increased from 300,000 direct SMB customers and 700,000 via partners in August 2024 to over 400,000 direct customers by March 2025.</li><li>Gusto was valued at $9.3B during a $200M employee tender offer in June 2025.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Gusto generated $975M of revenue in 2025, up 30% year-over-year from $750M in 2024.The customer base increased from 300,000 direct SMB customers and 700,000 via partners in August 2024 to over 400,000 direct customers by March 2025.Gusto was valued at $9.3B during a $200M employee tender offer in June 2025.

United States

Chime Financial, Inc. develops online banking software. The Company designs financial software to provides online banking, mobile payment, debit and credit cards, and savings and spending account opening services. Chime Financial serves customers in the State of California.

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Chime Financial (CHYM US)

Mynt (GCash) IPO: 2Q and Valuation Update

GCash (Mynt) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion at PHP10.00 per share. In this note, I update...

Arun George

Primer: Betterment - 24 Aug 2026

Dashboard for automated investing and high-yield cash accounts for retail investors

Sacra

Mynt (GCash) IPO: Valuation Insights

GCash (Mynt) is the No.1 finance super app in the Philippines. It is seeking to raise US$1.3 billion. In this note, I present my forecasts and...

Arun George

Primer: Revolut - 24 Jul 2026

Mobile banking app offering checking, savings, investing, and lending for global consumers

Sacra

Primer: Gusto - 16 Jul 2026

Payroll software for SMBs to manage employee and contractor payments, taxes, and benefits

Sacra

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