Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There are many simple domestic banks that can shine in a complex world</li>
<li>Outside of the largest banks in many regions, there are uncovered gems</li>
<li>This lessor known bank in Philippines has seen dramatic profit growth</li>
</ul>


There are many simple domestic banks that can shine in a complex world
Outside of the largest banks in many regions, there are uncovered gems
This lessor known bank in Philippines has seen dramatic profit growth


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the February rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> ends in two weeks.</li>
<li>There could be two changes for the index with passive trackers needing to trade between 23-64x ADV in the stocks.</li>
<li>The passive buying is a lot larger than the passive selling, there will be funding outflows for the other index constituents; some stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the February rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) ends in two weeks.
There could be two changes for the index with passive trackers needing to trade between 23-64x ADV in the stocks.
The passive buying is a lot larger than the passive selling, there will be funding outflows for the other index constituents; some stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February

<ul>
<li>With 90% of the review period for the August rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> complete, there could be one change for the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> in the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> also has some global passive selling at the close on 30 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a> is up 25x over the last couple of years and is up 46% since we identified the stock as a potential index inclusion.</li>
</ul>


With 90% of the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) complete, there could be one change for the index.

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) should replace Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) in the index. Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) also has some global passive selling at the close on 30 May.

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) is up 25x over the last couple of years and is up 46% since we identified the stock as a potential index inclusion.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes as PLUS Runs Away

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 15 August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive</a> has traded lower following the filing of the Online Gambling Regulatory bill that aims to enhance responsible gaming standards and strengthen regulatory oversight in the sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive</a> is in the early stages of a buyback and is looking to launch in Brazil and South Africa. The index inclusion could provide some respite in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) will replace Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the close of trading on 15 August.

DigiPlus Interactive has traded lower following the filing of the Online Gambling Regulatory bill that aims to enhance responsible gaming standards and strengthen regulatory oversight in the sector.

DigiPlus Interactive is in the early stages of a buyback and is looking to launch in Brazil and South Africa. The index inclusion could provide some respite in the short-term.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/areit-ayalaland-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28856:1" rel="noopener">Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-banking-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22788:1" rel="noopener">China Banking (CBC PM)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nickel-asia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10379:1" rel="noopener">Nickel Asia (NIKL PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilcon-builder-s-supply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23685:1" rel="noopener">Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index</a>.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and China Banking (CBC PM) will replace Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) and Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.
The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.


PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

Philippines

China Banking Corporation is a commercial bank. The Bank provides products and services such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, treasury products, trust products, corporate finance and other investment banking services.

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China Banking (CBC PM)

Hail The Simple Banks

Simple and unfollowed banks in Asia-Pacific can reveal gems. CHIB in Philippines may be one of these banks, with exceptional core profit growth and...

Daniel Tabbush

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February

There could be two sets of changes for the PCOMP in February. Passives will need to trade between 23-64x ADV in the stocks. The adds have moved...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Changes as PLUS Runs Away

DigiPlus Interactive could replace Bloomberry Resorts in the PCOMP in August. There will also be selling in BLOOM at the close on 30 May. PLUS is...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock

DigiPlus will replace Bloomberry in the PCOMP. DigiPlus has sold off on regulatory concerns and has launched a buyback. Bloomberry has continued to...

Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

AREIT and CBC will replace NIKL and WLCON in the PCOMP this week. Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-54 days of ADV in the changes. Adds...

Brian Freitas

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