Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com, Bidu, Cicc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com, Bidu, Cicc.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From July's recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors' net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.</li>
<li>Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants - SMIC and Hua Hong - are being bought as well. </li>
<li>Investors' long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.</li>
</ul>


From July's recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors' net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.
Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants - SMIC and Hua Hong - are being bought as well. 
Investors' long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.


Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY</li>
<li>Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics</li>
<li>Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines</li>
</ul>


Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY
Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics
Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines


HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

<ul>
<li>We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. </li>
<li>There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC</li>
<li>CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket</li>
</ul>


We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. 
There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC
CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket


HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

<ul>
<li>July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.</li>
<li>Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.</li>
<li>Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.</li>
</ul>


July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.
Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.
Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.


Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

China

China Construction Bank is a leading commercial bank offering comprehensive financial services including personal and corporate banking, wealth management, and treasury operations. Its products and services encompass infrastructure loans, residential mortgages, bank cards, fund management, and financial leasing. The bank is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 1954.

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China Construction Bank (939 HK)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo (992 HK), Knowledge...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Southbound buying declined in Aug, but avg daily turnover hit an all-time high. Buying resumed in Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba & Hua Hong. Food...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Lenovo, Knowledge Atlas, ABC, AIA, HKEx, China Resources Land, Trip.Com

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 18th and highlight short interest changes in Lenovo (992 HK), Knowledge...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Southbound buying declined in Aug, but avg daily turnover hit an all-time high. Buying resumed in Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba & Hua Hong. Food...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July ​Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...