Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 10th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,487.9 million, led by financials, materials, and offset by industrials, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Tourism Group Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai, Byd, China Merchants Bank, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Luxshare Precision Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 10th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,487.9 million, led by financials, materials, and offset by industrials, health care, utilities.
We highlight flows for China Tourism Group Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai, Byd, China Merchants Bank, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Luxshare Precision Industry.


Northbound Flows (Mar 10th): CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy, Tongwei, Luxshare

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 30th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$994.7 million, led by consumer staples, health care, materials sectors, and offset by financials, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, Wuliangye, Qinghai Salt Lake, Longi Green, CMB, TCL Zhonghuan, Sungrow.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 30th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$994.7 million, led by consumer staples, health care, materials sectors, and offset by financials, industrials.
We highlight flows for Moutai, Wuliangye, Qinghai Salt Lake, Longi Green, CMB, TCL Zhonghuan, Sungrow.


Northbound Flows (Sep 30th): Moutai, Wuliangye, Qinghai Salt Lake

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The terms for the proposed combination of Keppel O&amp;M and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> were announced. The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. </li>
<li>The proposed combination will require <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> and Sembcorp Marine shareholder approvals at separate EGMs and is expected to close in 4Q2022.</li>
<li>The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as the proposed combination creates S$9.4 billion of value, which is around 80% of Keppel’s market cap at the last close.</li>
</ul>


The terms for the proposed combination of Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) were announced. The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&amp;M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. 
The proposed combination will require Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Sembcorp Marine shareholder approvals at separate EGMs and is expected to close in 4Q2022.
The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as the proposed combination creates S$9.4 billion of value, which is around 80% of Keppel’s market cap at the last close.


Keppel: A Massive Winner from Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Combination

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> aims to spin off Yangzijiang Financial Holdings (YZJFH) through a dividend-in-specie of all the issued YZJFH shares to shareholders on a one-on-one basis.</li>
<li>YZJFH shares will be listed on the SGX-ST by way of an introduction. The EGM to approve the spin-off will be held on 18 April at 4 pm.</li>
<li>This transaction will unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.94 per share, which is a 22% upside to the last close price of S$1.59 per share.</li>
</ul>



Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) aims to spin off Yangzijiang Financial Holdings (YZJFH) through a dividend-in-specie of all the issued YZJFH shares to shareholders on a one-on-one basis.
YZJFH shares will be listed on the SGX-ST by way of an introduction. The EGM to approve the spin-off will be held on 18 April at 4 pm.
This transaction will unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.94 per share, which is a 22% upside to the last close price of S$1.59 per share.


Yangzijiang: Proposed Spin-Off of YZJFH to Unlock Value

China

China CSSC Holdings Ltd. offers shipbuilding, ship components, ship repairing and diesel engines manufacturing. The Company distributes its products within the domestic market and to overseas markets.

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China CSSC Holdings Ltd A (600150 CH)

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

There will be 5 changes in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.58% leading to a 1-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Mar 10th): CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy, Tongwei, Luxshare

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Sep 30th): Moutai, Wuliangye, Qinghai Salt Lake

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, Wuliangye, Qinghai Salt Lake, Longi Green,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Keppel: A Massive Winner from Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine’s Combination

The agreed equity value exchange ratio between Keppel O&M and Sembcorp Marine is 56%:44%. The transaction is a big win for Keppel shareholders as...

Arun George

Yangzijiang: Proposed Spin-Off of YZJFH to Unlock Value

The EGM to approve the spin-off of YZJFH will be held on 18 April at 4 pm. This transaction will unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$1.94 per...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)