IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing / Event-Driven

Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)

Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-unitrust-international-financial-leasing-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28044:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK)</a> halted trading on 5 October pending a takeover announcement. Its parent, Guotai Haitong Securities, owns 85% and will likely take it private.</li>
<li>A merger by absorption looks low-risk because no holder has a blocking stake and opposition at the AGM was negligible. A voluntary/delisting offer would face a tougher 90% acceptance hurdle.</li>
<li>My valuation methods point to an offer of HK$1.29–1.65 per share, a 7.5%–37.5% premium to the HK$1.20 close. </li>
</ul>



Haitong Unitrust International Financial Leasing (1905 HK) halted trading on 5 October pending a takeover announcement. Its parent, Guotai Haitong Securities, owns 85% and will likely take it private.
A merger by absorption looks low-risk because no holder has a blocking stake and opposition at the AGM was negligible. A voluntary/delisting offer would face a tougher 90% acceptance hurdle.
My valuation methods point to an offer of HK$1.29–1.65 per share, a 7.5%–37.5% premium to the HK$1.20 close. 


Haitong Unitrust (1905 HK): Trading Halt Points to a Likely Privatisation by the Parent

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. </li>
<li>Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. </li>
<li>A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. </li>
</ul>


Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. 
Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. 
A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. 


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on April 2, 2021 released finalized new capital standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that the need for banking  crisis liquidation plans; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value.

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on April 2, 2021 released finalized new capital standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that the need for banking  crisis liquidation plans; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. 

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

China

China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co. Ltd. is a financial and operating leasing company in the People's Republic of China. It provides leasing services across various sectors including aviation, shipping, regional development, inclusive finance, and green energy and high-end equipment. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

China Development Bank Financial Leasing (1606 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Development Bank Financial Leasing (1606 HK)

Haitong Unitrust (1905 HK): Trading Halt Points to a Likely Privatisation by the Parent

Haitong Unitrust is halted pending a likely privatisation by its parent. A merger vote looks low-risk; I estimate a potential offer range of...

Arun George

China: Revival 2.0?

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

China Banks – Screws Tighten On LGFVs

CHINA BANKS: Recently the CBIRC issued guidance on implicit LGFV debt via Document 15 – further tightening the screws on mainland China's financial...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

CHINA BANKS: The PBOC and CBIRC released finalized new capital standards for the country’s D-SIBs. Equity raises require P/BV over 1.0x and many of...

Thomas J. Monaco

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Haitong Unitrust (1905 HK): Trading Halt Points to a Likely Privatisation by the Parent

Haitong Unitrust is halted pending a likely privatisation by its parent. A merger vote looks low-risk; I estimate a potential offer range of...

Arun George

China: Revival 2.0?

​Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

China Banks – Screws Tighten On LGFVs

CHINA BANKS: Recently the CBIRC issued guidance on implicit LGFV debt via Document 15 – further tightening the screws on mainland China's financial...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

CHINA BANKS: The PBOC and CBIRC released finalized new capital standards for the country’s D-SIBs. Equity raises require P/BV over 1.0x and many of...

Thomas J. Monaco

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.