Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.</li>
<li>Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.</li>
<li>Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).</li>
</ul>


Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).


Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. </li>
<li>The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.</li>
<li>The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.</li>
</ul>


Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. 
The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Giant Network Group Co Ltd / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.
We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.


Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals</li>
<li>Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Fast and furious moves up in silver, PGM and related metals
Sectors we have highlighted as inflation beneficiaries starting to attract capital


Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

Canada

China Gold International Resources Corp Ltd. is a mining company focused on the exploration and development of gold projects in inner Mongolia and copper projects in Tibet Autonomous Region of China.

China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)

Price Gauge
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China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Gold: YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET!

In April 2024 we published "Gold's Next Leg Up and Why It Matters". Gold was at $2k/oz at the writing. We followed that with "GOLD: Rocks or...

David Mudd

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

​Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Gold: YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET!

In April 2024 we published "Gold's Next Leg Up and Why It Matters". Gold was at $2k/oz at the writing. We followed that with "GOLD: Rocks or...

David Mudd

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

Overview # 28 – Capital Flows into Hard Assets Continue

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the continued move up in inflation beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.