IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FWD Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (FWD US)</a> is seeking to raise $2 billion. We outlined the fundamentals in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-ipo-forward-march" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58263" rel="noopener">FWD Group IPO: Forward March</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fwd-group-vs-aia-vs-prudential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58967" rel="noopener">FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential</a>. </li>
<li>FWD has released its 9M21 results. Like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, the Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21.  </li>
<li>In light of the weak sentiment for Chinese ADRs, we err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of a return to normalcy to recommend the IPO.</li>
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FWD Group Holdings (FWD US) is seeking to raise $2 billion. We outlined the fundamentals in FWD Group IPO: Forward March and FWD Group Vs AIA Vs Prudential. 
FWD has released its 9M21 results. Like AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), the Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21.  
In light of the weak sentiment for Chinese ADRs, we err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of a return to normalcy to recommend the IPO.


FWD Group IPO: Slow 3Q Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<p>For our next Webinar, we're excited to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a>, who will cover the upcoming rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as it pushes towards its target of 80 index members by mid-2022.</p>
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 17 November 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85212464246" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
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<p>Brian Freitas is a highly experienced ex-delta one trader with over 17 years of experience. He was previously with Barclays, Macquarie, Credit Suisse, and BNP Paribas.</p>
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For our next Webinar, we're excited to welcome back Insight Provider Brian Freitas, who will cover the upcoming rebalance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as it pushes towards its target of 80 index members by mid-2022.
The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 17 November 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.



Register for the Webinar here




Brian Freitas is a highly experienced ex-delta one trader with over 17 years of experience. He was previously with Barclays, Macquarie, Credit Suisse, and BNP Paribas.


Smartkarma Webinar | Potential Inclusions to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>Hang Seng Indexes will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 19 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 December.</p><p>The review period for the December rebalance ended on 30 September and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>.</p><p>With Hang Seng Indexes looking to get up to 80 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> members by mid-2022, there could be 20 inclusions over the next 3 index rebalances.</p><p>As of the close on 3 November, index turnover is 1.3% from capping and other changes to the current index constituents. That gives the index committee a lot of room to add some big stocks to the index without increasing the turnover to levels seen at the last two rebalances in June and September.</p><p>We identify 12 stocks that could be added to the index based on market coverage and the impact of recent regulatory changes. Of the 12 stocks, 8 are higher probability changes and 4 are lower probability.</p><p>All 12 inclusions will result in a one-way turnover of 6.37% while the inclusion of the 8 high probability changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.98%.</p><p>There is large short interest on most of the stocks and index inclusion could set off a round of short covering and could drive the stocks higher.</p>

Hang Seng Indexes will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 19 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 December.The review period for the December rebalance ended on 30 September and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX).With Hang Seng Indexes looking to get up to 80 Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) members by mid-2022, there could be 20 inclusions over the next 3 index rebalances.As of the close on 3 November, index turnover is 1.3% from capping and other changes to the current index constituents. That gives the index committee a lot of room to add some big stocks to the index without increasing the turnover to levels seen at the last two rebalances in June and September.We identify 12 stocks that could be added to the index based on market coverage and the impact of recent regulatory changes. Of the 12 stocks, 8 are higher probability changes and 4 are lower probability.All 12 inclusions will result in a one-way turnover of 6.37% while the inclusion of the 8 high probability changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.98%.There is large short interest on most of the stocks and index inclusion could set off a round of short covering and could drive the stocks higher.

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: The Road to 80 Constituents

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Pacific Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Weak 3Q21 Results: </em></strong>China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported 3Q21 results of CNY 5.4 bn, declining CNY 3.4 bn (38.5%) linked quarter. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units, which declined CNY 3.9 bn (52.4%) and CNY 156 mn (10.6%), respectively, to CNY 3.6 bn and CNY 1.3 bn; and</p><p><strong><em>*Troubles Continue In Life: </em></strong>During 3Q21, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 41.0% linked quarter largely due to CPIC relying more on online channels to conduct new sales, and intimating agency distribution remained a challenge.The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a new agency restructure will be implemented beginning January 1, 2022.</p>

*Weak 3Q21 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported 3Q21 results of CNY 5.4 bn, declining CNY 3.4 bn (38.5%) linked quarter. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units, which declined CNY 3.9 bn (52.4%) and CNY 156 mn (10.6%), respectively, to CNY 3.6 bn and CNY 1.3 bn; and*Troubles Continue In Life: During 3Q21, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 41.0% linked quarter largely due to CPIC relying more on online channels to conduct new sales, and intimating agency distribution remained a challenge.The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a new agency restructure will be implemented beginning January 1, 2022.

China Pacific Insurance – Life Troubles

<p>*<strong><em>Weak Results in Investment and P&amp;C: </em></strong>Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 3Q21 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 7.1 bn (23.2%) linked quarter.  Much of the struggle this quarter remained Ping An’s investment portfolio – likely a long-term thematic, where the net investment yield plummet 30 bp to 4.4%. Excluding Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] whose results were completely managed, all other business units disappointed linked quarter; and</p><p><strong><em>*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans: </em></strong> PAB reported 3Q21 results of CNY 11.7 bn. Don’t shoot off the streamers just yet, credit quality was abysmal and Ping An clearly pulled on its bank lever. By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs are now accelerating at Indian bank pace of CNY 12.4 bn or 159.8% annualized.  Assuming that the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves remain CNY 19 bn light.<strong>  </strong></p>

*Weak Results in Investment and P&amp;C: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 3Q21 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 7.1 bn (23.2%) linked quarter.  Much of the struggle this quarter remained Ping An’s investment portfolio – likely a long-term thematic, where the net investment yield plummet 30 bp to 4.4%. Excluding Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] whose results were completely managed, all other business units disappointed linked quarter; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans:  PAB reported 3Q21 results of CNY 11.7 bn. Don’t shoot off the streamers just yet, credit quality was abysmal and Ping An clearly pulled on its bank lever. By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs are now accelerating at Indian bank pace of CNY 12.4 bn or 159.8% annualized.  Assuming that the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves remain CNY 19 bn light.  

Ping An Insurance – Another Abysmal Result

China

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

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China Life Insurance Company (2628 HK)

FWD Group IPO: Slow 3Q Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

The Delta variant had an impact resulting in a lower APE and VNB growth in 3Q21 vs 1H21. We err on the side of caution and need to see evidence of...

Arun George

Smartkarma Webinar | Potential Inclusions to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

On Wednesday, 17 November, 5pm SGT, join our webinar with Brian Freitas, who will cover the upcoming rebalance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index.

Smartkarma Research

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: The Road to 80 Constituents

The HSI has 60 members and the target is to reach 80 constituents over the next 3 rebalances. There could be a lot of stocks added at the Dec rebal...

Brian Freitas

China Pacific Insurance – Life Troubles

CHINA PACIFIC: CPIC reported a 3Q21 QOQ results decline of 38.5%, driven by both the Life and P&C units. The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Another Abysmal Result

PING AN: Ping An reported a QOQ 3Q21 results decline of 23.2%, attributed to its investment portfolio. Excluding PAB, whose results were managed,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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