Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bosideng International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Even China's consumption market is tough, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng Intl Holdings (3998 HK)</a> has still achieved a 25.1% profit growth. Revenue maintained a healthy trend while gross margin was stable.</li>
<li>Sales trend stayed solid in 2H FY24, and it ranked first in major online channels in various categories of apparel sales during the "double-11" shopping festival.</li>
<li>Store efficiency improved as revenue saw double-digit growth despite a 9.7% YoY fewer retail network. It is encouraging to see its 3-year target is to outperform the last 5 years.</li>
</ul>


Even China's consumption market is tough, Bosideng Intl Holdings (3998 HK) has still achieved a 25.1% profit growth. Revenue maintained a healthy trend while gross margin was stable.
Sales trend stayed solid in 2H FY24, and it ranked first in major online channels in various categories of apparel sales during the "double-11" shopping festival.
Store efficiency improved as revenue saw double-digit growth despite a 9.7% YoY fewer retail network. It is encouraging to see its 3-year target is to outperform the last 5 years.


Bosideng (3998 HK): Never Fail to Deliver

<ul>
<li>There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.</li>
<li>We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.
We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>While having a slow FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> is well-positioned to capture the rebound in down apparel sales growth as pent-up demand is released.  </li>
<li>We also expect a recovery in margin, further improvement in channel efficiency and operating leverage from cost control will add to earnings momentum. </li>
<li>Management expects revenue growth will at least sustain at the rate in the last 5 years. The stock's valuations are cheap when compared with growth outlook and global peers. </li>
</ul>


While having a slow FY23, Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) is well-positioned to capture the rebound in down apparel sales growth as pent-up demand is released.  
We also expect a recovery in margin, further improvement in channel efficiency and operating leverage from cost control will add to earnings momentum. 
Management expects revenue growth will at least sustain at the rate in the last 5 years. The stock's valuations are cheap when compared with growth outlook and global peers. 


Bosideng (3998 HK): Outlook Stays Promising

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16267:1" rel="noopener">Enm Holdings (128 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from Chime Corporation at HK$0.58 per scheme share, a 54.7% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.375 per share (24 May). </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake. The offer price is final.</li>
<li>Detractors will argue the offer is low due to ENM’s net cash (75% of the market cap). However, the offer is reasonable compared to historical multiples and share prices. </li>
</ul>



Enm Holdings (128 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Chime Corporation at HK$0.58 per scheme share, a 54.7% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.375 per share (24 May). 
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake. The offer price is final.
Detractors will argue the offer is low due to ENM’s net cash (75% of the market cap). However, the offer is reasonable compared to historical multiples and share prices. 


ENM Holdings (128 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.58 Per Share

China

China Lilang Ltd. manufactures men's clothing and accessories.  The company produces suits, jackets, shirts, trousers, sweaters, and accessories.

Price Gauge
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China Lilang (1234 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Bosideng (3998 HK): Never Fail to Deliver

Bosideng achieved 25.1% profit growth despite tough consumption market. Healthy revenue growth, stable margins, and improved store efficiency are...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 22 adds/ 27 deletes for the HSCI in Sep leading to 22 adds/ 24 deletes for Stock Connect. Since end June, shares held though Southbound...

Brian Freitas

Bosideng (3998 HK): Outlook Stays Promising

The release of pent-up demand, recovery in gross margin, further improvement in channel efficiency and operating leverage from cost control will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Bosideng (3998 HK): Never Fail to Deliver

Bosideng achieved 25.1% profit growth despite tough consumption market. Healthy revenue growth, stable margins, and improved store efficiency are...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 22 adds/ 27 deletes for the HSCI in Sep leading to 22 adds/ 24 deletes for Stock Connect. Since end June, shares held though Southbound...

Brian Freitas

Bosideng (3998 HK): Outlook Stays Promising

The release of pent-up demand, recovery in gross margin, further improvement in channel efficiency and operating leverage from cost control will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ENM Holdings (128 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.58 Per Share

Detractors will argue the offer is low due to ENM’s net cash (75% of the market cap). However, the offer is reasonable compared to historical...

Arun George