IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, Toyo. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shl-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11571:1" rel="noopener">SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo. 
Lowest spreads  Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) - Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Mengniu Dairy Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2023 outlook. Management guided for mid-to-high single digit revenue growth ex Milkground (Mengniu holds 35% of the latter and has started consolidation from Dec 2022).</li><li>This came in slightly below our expectation, as the expected recovery now looks lack of steam.</li><li>Alternatively, we argue that the milk powder business remains a drag to Mengniu, despite small, and we still look for a HSD revenue decline.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2023 outlook. Management guided for mid-to-high single digit revenue growth ex Milkground (Mengniu holds 35% of the latter and has started consolidation from Dec 2022).This came in slightly below our expectation, as the expected recovery now looks lack of steam.Alternatively, we argue that the milk powder business remains a drag to Mengniu, despite small, and we still look for a HSD revenue decline.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) – Subpar Growth Target

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, Nippon Steel. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Estia Health (EHE AU). 
Lowest spreads - Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Healius (HLS AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Nippon Steel. 


Merger Arb Mondays (27 Mar) - AAG Energy, Jiangnan, Toshiba, Toyo, Estia, Mincor, Golden Energy

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 24th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Ck Asset (1113 HK), Swire Pacific (87 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 24th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Ck Asset (1113 HK), Swire Pacific (87 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 24th): Aia, Ck Asset, Swire Pacific

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 17th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Swire Pacific (87 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Swire Pacific (87 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 17th): Aia, Swire Pacific, Swire Pacific

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

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China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) - Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (38.1%), Alliance Aviation (37.3%), Genesis (22.8%), Estia (13.2%), Tyro (11.5%), AAG (10.1%), Toyo...

Arun George

Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) – Subpar Growth Target

2023 outlook. Management guided for mid-to-high single digit revenue growth ex Milkground (Mengniu holds 35% of the latter and has started...

CMB International

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Mar) - AAG Energy, Jiangnan, Toshiba, Toyo, Estia, Mincor, Golden Energy

This week, the highest gross spreads are Alliance Aviation (36.9%), 111 (31.9%), Genesis (23.8%), AAG Energy (15.6%), Tyro (13.1%), Estia (12.4%),...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 24th): Aia, Ck Asset, Swire Pacific

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Aia (1299 HK), Ck...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 17th): Aia, Swire Pacific, Swire Pacific

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Aia (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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Market Cap (USDm)

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