Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Junlebao Dairy Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Junlebao deliberately avoided the red sea market dominated by peers. This category-based offensive approach enabled Junlebao to achieve victories in segmented markets. However, the biggest risks lie in cost end. </li>
<li>The core contradiction in valuation is how much premium the market would pay for its "high-growth potential" and " leadership in specific segments" to offset the discount caused by risks.</li>
<li>If Yili and Mengniu launch more aggressive price or resource competition in low-temperature market segment, it will directly squeeze Junlebao's profit margin. Valuation of Junlebao could be lower than peers.  </li>
</ul>


Junlebao deliberately avoided the red sea market dominated by peers. This category-based offensive approach enabled Junlebao to achieve victories in segmented markets. However, the biggest risks lie in cost end. 
The core contradiction in valuation is how much premium the market would pay for its "high-growth potential" and " leadership in specific segments" to offset the discount caused by risks.
If Yili and Mengniu launch more aggressive price or resource competition in low-temperature market segment, it will directly squeeze Junlebao's profit margin. Valuation of Junlebao could be lower than peers.  


Pre-IPO Junlebao Dairy Group - The Strength and the Concerns

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 24th): China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A longer term implication of Trump-Xi meeting is that US-China trade relations could be (much) smoother than many have anticipated.</li>
<li>A Fuyao Glass case illustrates that a win-win solution for US-China trade relations is for real.</li>
<li>Global reflation trade is alive and well; for China market, we recommend technology, consumer discretionary, and infrastructure plays.</li>
</ul>With the first official 2-day meeting between the US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping kicking off today, we would like…


A longer term implication of Trump-Xi meeting is that US-China trade relations could be (much) smoother than many have anticipated.
A Fuyao Glass case illustrates that a win-win solution for US-China trade relations is for real.
Global reflation trade is alive and well; for China market, we recommend technology, consumer discretionary, and infrastructure plays.
With the first official 2-day meeting between the US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping kicking off today, we would like…

China Strategy: (Much) Smoother US-China Relations Ahead?

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 24th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 24th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 24th): AIA, Xiaomi, Kuaishou

Hong Kong

Mengniu Dairy is a leading Chinese dairy enterprise focused on manufacturing and distributing a wide range of nutritious, healthy, and delicious dairy products. Its product portfolio includes liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese. The company is headquartered in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China, and was founded in 1999.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK)

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs....

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Junlebao Dairy Group - The Strength and the Concerns

Junlebao's strategic focus on niche markets has led to success, but risks remain in cost management and competition from industry giants....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 24th): China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: (Much) Smoother US-China Relations Ahead?

A longer term implication of Trump-Xi meeting is that US-China trade relations could be (much) smoother than many have anticipated. A Fuyao Glass...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 24th): AIA, Xiaomi, Kuaishou

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs....

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Junlebao Dairy Group - The Strength and the Concerns

​Junlebao's strategic focus on niche markets has led to success, but risks remain in cost management and competition from industry giants....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 24th): China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Mobile, CCB, ICBC, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: (Much) Smoother US-China Relations Ahead?

A longer term implication of Trump-Xi meeting is that US-China trade relations could be (much) smoother than many have anticipated. A Fuyao Glass...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 24th): AIA, Xiaomi, Kuaishou

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Junlebao's strategic focus on niche markets has led to success, but risks remain in cost management and competition from industry giants....