Equity Analyst, TMT & Energy Specialist

HL Tan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?<ul><li>
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…</li></ul>

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Index Rebalance

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>The rally in the stock price over the last couple of months could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> being added to a global index in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> has outperformed its peers but still trades cheaper on comparable valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-transpor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29897:1" rel="noopener">COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transpor (600026 CH)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> premium has jumped recently and could move lower in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


The rally in the stock price over the last couple of months could result in Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) being added to a global index in May.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) has outperformed its peers but still trades cheaper on comparable valuation metrics.
The COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transpor (600026 CH) / Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) premium has jumped recently and could move lower in the short-term.


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Global Index Inclusion & The A/H Premium

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real economy in China continues to stabilize and even expand.  Virtually all granular data collected in May 2016, supports the hypothesis that real output has not simply stabilized but grown. This leads us to believe that current estimates of both official and unofficial PMI due to be released on June 1, underestimate the expected value.  Wind currently provides…

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real economy in China continues to stabilize and even expand.  Virtually all granular data collected in May 2016, supports the hypothesis that real output has not simply stabilized but grown. This leads us to believe that current estimates of both official and unofficial PMI due to be released on June 1, underestimate the expected value.  Wind currently provides…

Early PMI Reading Before Official June 1 Release

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes<ul><li>Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkish</li><li>Fed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)</li><li>Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?</li><li>Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY</li></ul>

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikesWhilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkishFed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

<ul><li>Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp V-shaped bounce from the pullback 2 wks back</li><li>If the strong USD trend continues, we’d expect risk-off to be the flavour of the moment with EM, Commodities &amp; equities in general set to decline</li><li>Check out the long NOKSEK SaxoStrats idea flagged by our Head of FX Strategy John Hardy – I like the thesis, it definitely worth doing some heavy lifting on this</li><li>Plus a few links to the Sohn Investment Conference where movers &amp; shakers such as Chanos &amp; Druckenmiller were talking their views </li></ul>

Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp V-shaped bounce from the pullback 2 wks backIf the strong USD trend continues, we’d expect risk-off to be the flavour of the moment with EM, Commodities &amp; equities in general set to declineCheck out the long NOKSEK SaxoStrats idea flagged by our Head of FX Strategy John Hardy – I like the thesis, it definitely worth doing some heavy lifting on thisPlus a few links to the Sohn Investment Conference where movers &amp; shakers such as Chanos &amp; Druckenmiller were talking their views 

Global Macro Take: WK 20 – The US Dollar Just Won't Die

China

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. mainly engages in the Ocean Shipping of Crude Oil and other energy sources such as Coal and Iron Ore. Through its subsidiary CLNG, the Company also provides the Ocean Shipping service of Liquefied Natural Gas.

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China Merchants Energy A (601872 CH)

Oil Price - OPEC Deal or No Deal?

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production...

HL Tan

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Global Index Inclusion & The A/H Premium

Following a jump in the stock price, COSCO Shipping Energy could be added to a global index in May. The positioning and passive buying could lead...

Brian Freitas

Early PMI Reading Before Official June 1 Release

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real...

Christopher Balding

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more...

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Take: WK 20 – The US Dollar Just Won't Die

Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp...

Kay Van-Petersen

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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