Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123</li>
<li>We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123
We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers

Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.


TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>'s composite document is out with the H Shareholders’ class meeting scheduled for 16 September. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At last close and for a 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 0.9% and 7.6%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)'s composite document is out with the H Shareholders’ class meeting scheduled for 16 September. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
This is a done deal. At last close and for a 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 0.9% and 7.6%, respectively. 


Xiamen Port’s H Share Class Meeting on 16 September

<ul>
<li>The pre-condition for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>’s privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.25 per H share. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 2.7% and 16.0%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The pre-condition for Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)’s privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.25 per H share. 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
The offer is attractive. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 2.7% and 16.0%, respectively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding at HK$2.25 per H share + final dividend of RMB0.021 per share (ex-div: 15 June). </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We think that the privatisation proposal will likely succeed. At the last close, the gross spread is 55.2%.</li>
</ul>



Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding at HK$2.25 per H share + final dividend of RMB0.021 per share (ex-div: 15 June). 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  
The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We think that the privatisation proposal will likely succeed. At the last close, the gross spread is 55.2%.


Xiamen Port’s Juicy HK$2.25 Per H Share Privatisation Offer

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/768/original/BANNER-BoxDec20.png?1610728156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182768"></figure></section>[Review rates, volume growth (both strong, again), but note some cracks: US weak retail sales in December vs expectations, rising fuel costs, these threaten positive narrative]Wondering about spot container rates versus "achieved" rates? The three Taiwanese carriers show us why spot exposure, not spot rates, is the key determinant of monthly sales momentum. Fuel prices continue to rise and are now over 60% higher than they were in April 2020. High and rising fuel prices pose a threat to container carrier profitability in the near-term, in our view. We also offer brief notes on ZIM's planned IPO and weak US retail sales in December. We conclude by highlighting YTD share performance and current Price-to-book valuations close to 2.0 times.

[Review rates, volume growth (both strong, again), but note some cracks: US weak retail sales in December vs expectations, rising fuel costs, these threaten positive narrative]Wondering about spot container rates versus "achieved" rates? The three Taiwanese carriers show us why spot exposure, not spot rates, is the key determinant of monthly sales momentum. Fuel prices continue to rise and are now over 60% higher than they were in April 2020. High and rising fuel prices pose a threat to container carrier profitability in the near-term, in our view. We also offer brief notes on ZIM's planned IPO and weak US retail sales in December. We conclude by highlighting YTD share performance and current Price-to-book valuations close to 2.0 times.

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Spot Vs 'Achieved' Rates | Fuel Prices Up | US Retail Weak

Hong Kong

China Merchants Port is a leading global port developer, investor, and operator, primarily engaged in port operations, bonded logistics, and property investment. The company manages container and bulk/general cargo terminals, operates logistics parks, and provides port transportation and airport cargo handling services. It is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1991.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Merchants Port (144 HK)

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

Xiamen Port’s Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition is satisfied. Interims are on 26 August. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 16.0%....

Arun George

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Spot Vs 'Achieved' Rates | Fuel Prices Up | US Retail Weak

Although December container volumes and average pricing improved, we see increasing risks, including rising fuel prices and lackluster US retail...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

Xiamen Port’s H Share Class Meeting on 16 September

This is a done deal. At the last close price of HK$2.23 per H Share and for a 6 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 7.6%.

Arun George

Xiamen Port’s Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition is satisfied. Interims are on 26 August. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 16.0%....

Arun George

Xiamen Port’s Juicy HK$2.25 Per H Share Privatisation Offer

Xiamen Port Holding will offer HK$2.25 per H share + a final dividend of RMB0.021 per share. The offer is attractive in comparison to historical...

Arun George

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Spot Vs 'Achieved' Rates | Fuel Prices Up | US Retail Weak

Although December container volumes and average pricing improved, we see increasing risks, including rising fuel prices and lackluster US retail...

Tracking Traffic