Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northeast-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6022:1" rel="noopener">Northeast Securities (000686 CH)</a> will be added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbin-hatou-investment-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13056:1" rel="noopener">Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.

Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be added to the index while Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH) will be deleted.
There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.


CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

<ul>
<li>With two days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">FXI</a> ETF in June.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> will add to the potential inclusion of the stock in other indices.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in both stocks. Multiple index inclusions could result in short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group</a>'s stock price has been bouncing off its lows.</li>
</ul>


With two days left in the review period, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could replace China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) in the FXI ETF in June.
The inclusion of Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) will add to the potential inclusion of the stock in other indices.
Short interest has been increasing in both stocks. Multiple index inclusions could result in short covering in Pop Mart while China Railway Group's stock price has been bouncing off its lows.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 1/2 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a>.</li>
<li>Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">FXI</a> and there could be further deviations from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> options.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1/2 changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the HKEX.
Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the FXI and there could be further deviations from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) options.


FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The exchange ratio for the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> is 0.62x. </li>
<li>The merger closing is subject to several effectiveness and implementation conditions. The latest update suggests that the remaining conditions are CSRC and HKEx approvals.</li>
<li>The satisfaction of the remaining conditions is a formality. At the last close and for an end February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.2%/26.4%. </li>
</ul>


The exchange ratio for the merger between Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) is 0.62x. 
The merger closing is subject to several effectiveness and implementation conditions. The latest update suggests that the remaining conditions are CSRC and HKEx approvals.
The satisfaction of the remaining conditions is a formality. At the last close and for an end February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.2%/26.4%. 


Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 101.0% as of Dec 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials and offset by real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 101.0% as of Dec 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials and offset by real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 13th):ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA

China

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities underwriting, and other services. China Merchants Securities also operates investment management.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

Pop Mart could replace China Railway in the FXI ETF. Pop Mart is also a potential inclusion to other indices. Shorts have been increasing in both...

Brian Freitas

FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

There could be many constituent changes to the FXI this year. That will alter the returns, volatility and drawdown of the ETF and open up trading...

Brian Freitas

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch

The latest update notes that CSRC approval has been obtained. Therefore, the remaining condition is HKEx approval, which is a formality. At the...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 13th):ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

Northeast Securities will be added and Harbin Hatou will be deleted. Both stocks have 2.6x ADV to trade. There could be further upside till...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Pops Up Again

Pop Mart could replace China Railway in the FXI ETF. Pop Mart is also a potential inclusion to other indices. Shorts have been increasing in both...

Brian Freitas

FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

There could be many constituent changes to the FXI this year. That will alter the returns, volatility and drawdown of the ETF and open up trading...

Brian Freitas

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger: The Home Stretch

The latest update notes that CSRC approval has been obtained. Therefore, the remaining condition is HKEx approval, which is a formality. At the...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 13th):ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM