Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Pan-Asian indices and stocks we cover, the forecasts are based on our proprietary quantitative models.</li>
<li>Several stocks and indices we cover pulled back last week but only 2 are oversold: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> .</li>
<li>2 stocks are really overbought: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil</a> are also overbought, while US Bonds are oversold.</li>
</ul>


Tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Pan-Asian indices and stocks we cover, the forecasts are based on our proprietary quantitative models.
Several stocks and indices we cover pulled back last week but only 2 are oversold: China Mobile (941 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) .
2 stocks are really overbought: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and TSMC (2330 TT), and the KOSPI 200 INDEX. Gold and Crude Oil are also overbought, while US Bonds are oversold.


Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Jan 26 – Jan 30)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> has been downtrending since mid-November, this insight assesses the Convexity of a China Mobile Long Position based on our model probabilistic forecast.</li>
<li>Mean reversion opportunities come in various shape, this one is a short-term trade, where the investor can lock in a quick gain on a 1-2 weeks holding horizon.</li>
<li>The trade can be executed with stocks or options. Vertical Spread combos, if available are also a good choice, use our model targets to improve your P/L Ratio skew.</li>
</ul>



China Mobile (941 HK) has been downtrending since mid-November, this insight assesses the Convexity of a China Mobile Long Position based on our model probabilistic forecast.
Mean reversion opportunities come in various shape, this one is a short-term trade, where the investor can lock in a quick gain on a 1-2 weeks holding horizon.
The trade can be executed with stocks or options. Vertical Spread combos, if available are also a good choice, use our model targets to improve your P/L Ratio skew.


China Mobile (941 HK) High-Conviction Tactical Entry

<ul>
<li>A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is very oversold and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> are mildly oversold, all these stocks currently present BUY opportunities.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> are mildly overbought but after 4 weeks up CBA presents a more compelling SHORT or hedging opportunity.</li>
</ul>


A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.

China Mobile (941 HK) is very oversold and  BYD (1211 HK) and Softbank Group (9984 JP) are mildly oversold, all these stocks currently present BUY opportunities.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) are mildly overbought but after 4 weeks up CBA presents a more compelling SHORT or hedging opportunity.


Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Dec 29 – Jan 2)

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 5.79% in July, outperforming its benchmark by 0.30%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 52% to 74% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio's largest exposures are in the industrial, financial, and technology platform sectors. The portfolio has no exposure to the materials or energy sectors.</li>
<li>The portfolio has generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 since inception, compared with 0.69 for the benchmark.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 19.4%.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 5.79% in July, outperforming its benchmark by 0.30%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 52% to 74% since inception.
The portfolio's largest exposures are in the industrial, financial, and technology platform sectors. The portfolio has no exposure to the materials or energy sectors.
The portfolio has generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 since inception, compared with 0.69 for the benchmark.  The portfolio's annualized mean excess return is 19.4%.


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
HKEX Expands Weekly Options: Five new single-stock weeklies debut on 10 November, broadening Hong Kong’s fast-growing short-dated options market.</li>
<li>
Why It Matters: Weeklies let traders and investors hedge or speculate around key events with precision, lower premiums, and higher gamma exposure.</li>
<li>
Momentum: Trading volumes in existing weeklies have surged—up nearly fourfold since launch—underscoring rising investor adoption and liquidity.</li>
</ul>



HKEX Expands Weekly Options: Five new single-stock weeklies debut on 10 November, broadening Hong Kong’s fast-growing short-dated options market.

Why It Matters: Weeklies let traders and investors hedge or speculate around key events with precision, lower premiums, and higher gamma exposure.

Momentum: Trading volumes in existing weeklies have surged—up nearly fourfold since launch—underscoring rising investor adoption and liquidity.


HKEX Adds Five New Weekly Options on 10 Nov: AIA, China Mobile, Xiaomi Join Fast-Growing Line-Up

Hong Kong

China Mobile is a Chinese state-owned telecommunications company that provides mobile voice, data, and multimedia services through its extensive nationwide network across mainland China and Hong Kong. It also offers fixed-line broadband, enterprise solutions, and cloud services, leveraging advanced 4G and 5G technologies. The company was incorporated in Hong Kong on September 3, 1997, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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China Mobile (941 HK)

Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Jan 26 – Jan 30)

Weekly snapshot of oversold/overbought Pan-Asian indices and stocks, with short-term tactical views for the coming week (including Gold, Crude Oil,...

Nico Rosti