Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>With a 5-week rally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.</li>
<li>Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.</li>
<li>This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.</li>
</ul>


With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.


China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-mobile-941-hk-tactical-outlook-following-q1-2025-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> hasn't really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.</li>
<li>Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model's Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally...).
</li>
<li>
Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we're not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Our previous insight indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but China Mobile (941 HK) hasn't really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.
Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model's Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally...).


Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we're not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.


<ul>
<li>On April 22, 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations. </li>
<li>The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low &lt;80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.</li>
<li>Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit). </li>
</ul>


On April 22, 2025, China Mobile (941 HK) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations. 
The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low &lt;80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.
Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit). 


China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.</li>
<li>The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup. </li>
<li>Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$619bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$23bn which is much smaller than the last several weeks.
The flows here are still striking and net to buy. There has to be institutional buying. And I assume it is to get the earnings yield and div pickup. 
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Mar 2025); Lots Of "Day Trading" And Behind the Scenes Div-Buying

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is about to release its 2024 results and as argued by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gaudenz-schneider" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:66501" rel="noopener">Gaudenz Schneider</a> in his latest insight the stock usually displays minimal post-earnings volatility.</li>
<li>Our model shows room for higher prices, up to 86.95, but this needs to happen very quickly because the stock may pullback after the end of this week.</li>
<li>The stock is in a bullish pattern according to our model, it should continue to rally after the pullback, if results are good, so this is a tactical opportunity.</li>
</ul>



China Mobile (941 HK) is about to release its 2024 results and as argued by Gaudenz Schneider in his latest insight the stock usually displays minimal post-earnings volatility.
Our model shows room for higher prices, up to 86.95, but this needs to happen very quickly because the stock may pullback after the end of this week.
The stock is in a bullish pattern according to our model, it should continue to rally after the pullback, if results are good, so this is a tactical opportunity.


China Mobile (941 HK) Pre-Earnings Forecast and Outlook

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited provides telecommunication services. The Company offers wireline voice, broadband, roaming, and other related services. China Mobile serves customers in Hong Kong.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Mobile (941 HK)