Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

Xiamen Tungsten Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 June 2026 added 19 stocks and deleted 19. With all post-implementation windows complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.</li>
<li>ADDs rose broadly in the first implementation week. The historical fade read was offset by a stronger CSI 300 tape and tungsten-specific newsflow. Weeks 2 to 4 reversed the gains.</li>
<li>DELETEs fell in the first week and drifted lower in weeks 2 to 4. The direction matched history, and the losses were milder than in prior cycles.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 June 2026 added 19 stocks and deleted 19. With all post-implementation windows complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.
ADDs rose broadly in the first implementation week. The historical fade read was offset by a stronger CSI 300 tape and tungsten-specific newsflow. Weeks 2 to 4 reversed the gains.
DELETEs fell in the first week and drifted lower in weeks 2 to 4. The direction matched history, and the losses were milder than in prior cycles.


CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

China

China Oilfield Services Limited provides oilfield services. The Company provides geophysical prospecting, drilling, oilfield technology development, and other services. China Oilfield Services also operates transportation businesses.

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China Oilfield Services (601808 CH)

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

CSI 300 June 2026 rebalance has passed the first post-implementation month. We review what worked, what did not, and how current results compare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

34 stocks in our Q2'21 HIGH-RISK screen, vs Q1 2021 's 25. Q2'21 shows a reduction in avg stock rank to 65.2 from 70.8 pts in Q1 2020....

David Lepper

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