Equity Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Property / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-property-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22794:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Property (2669 HK)</a> announced an acquisition on October 11 of a technical consultancy business from China State Construction Development (830 HK), a sister company. </li>
<li>The deal consideration will be not higher than HKD950m, which amounts to a PE ratio of 17.5x based on estimated 2023 earnings of the acquired business.</li>
<li>In the current extremely shaky market, this kind of deal is very damaging to the market confidence of the stock.  Further derating is likely. </li>
</ul>



China Overseas Property (2669 HK) announced an acquisition on October 11 of a technical consultancy business from China State Construction Development (830 HK), a sister company. 
The deal consideration will be not higher than HKD950m, which amounts to a PE ratio of 17.5x based on estimated 2023 earnings of the acquired business.
In the current extremely shaky market, this kind of deal is very damaging to the market confidence of the stock.  Further derating is likely. 


China Overseas Property (2669 HK):  Questionable Acquisition From Sister Company

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. </li>
<li>A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.</li>
<li>Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.</li>
</ul>


Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. 
A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.
Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.


China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Greentown Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.</li>
<li>And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. </li>
<li>Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.</li>
</ul>


As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.
And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. 
Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.


China Property Management: Lacking Independence

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>YY’s Asia reported that 12 national banks are planning to provide RMB 80bn syndicate loan for Vanke to repay its future maturing debt, and several banks have confirmed this news.</li><li>We think this confirms our previous statement that “regulators have reached a consensus on Vanke’s position as a systematically important developer”, showing a clear attitude to provide financial assistance to Vanke.</li><li>This would bring more confidence to the market during the debt repayment peak.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

YY’s Asia reported that 12 national banks are planning to provide RMB 80bn syndicate loan for Vanke to repay its future maturing debt, and several banks have confirmed this news.We think this confirms our previous statement that “regulators have reached a consensus on Vanke’s position as a systematically important developer”, showing a clear attitude to provide financial assistance to Vanke.This would bring more confidence to the market during the debt repayment peak.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Sales Show Recovery Sign, Banks May Help Semi-SOE

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 2nd): Tencent

China

China Overseas Property Holdings Limited operates as a property management firm. The Company manages residential communities, commercial properties and government properties in Hong Kong and Macau.

China Overseas Property (2669 HK)