IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sunshine Insurance Group  Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK)</a>, a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunshine-insurance-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85205" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&amp;C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group's declining investment yield.</li>
</ul>



Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&amp;C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group's declining investment yield.


Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&amp;C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.</li>
<li>SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&amp;H) and property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance in China.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>


Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&amp;C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&amp;H) and property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance in China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK)</a>, a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In 2020, Sunshine P&amp;C ranked seventh and Sunshine Life ranked 12th as measured by original premiums income market share, according to the CBIRC and the Insurance Association of China.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&amp;C’s underwriting profits in 9M22 and its high group solvency ratio.</li>
</ul>



Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In 2020, Sunshine P&amp;C ranked seventh and Sunshine Life ranked 12th as measured by original premiums income market share, according to the CBIRC and the Insurance Association of China.
The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&amp;C’s underwriting profits in 9M22 and its high group solvency ratio.


Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 25th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, and outflows from Meituan, Li Ning.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 25th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, and outflows from Meituan, Li Ning.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 25th): Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, Meituan, Li Ning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.</li><li>The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 5.4ppt, delivering 0.2% return (vs MSCI China 5.6%).</li><li>China Meidong Auto and Innovent Biologics delivered over 20% of return, and 4 of our 21 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 5.4ppt, delivering 0.2% return (vs MSCI China 5.6%).China Meidong Auto and Innovent Biologics delivered over 20% of return, and 4 of our 21 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Research Focus List (November Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

China

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

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China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&C’s regulatory pressure on...

Arun George

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO. In this note, we undertake a...

Sumeet Singh

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&C’s underwriting profits in...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 25th): Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, Meituan, Li Ning

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Kuaishou, Xpeng, Meituan, Li Ning.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMBI Research Focus List (November Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)