Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL H-shares</a> with a discount of up to 10% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.</li>
<li>The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.</li>
<li>Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.</li>
</ul>


Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 90.4% as of Apr 11th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by financials, health care, energy and offset by consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life, Csc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 90.4% as of Apr 11th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by financials, health care, energy and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life, Csc Financial.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.3% as of Mar 21st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.4ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer discretionary, communication services and offset by consumer staples, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huadian Power, Livzon Pharma, Joinn Lab, Maanshan Iron&amp;Steel, Datang Intl Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.3% as of Mar 21st.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.4ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer discretionary, communication services and offset by consumer staples, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huadian Power, Livzon Pharma, Joinn Lab, Maanshan Iron&amp;Steel, Datang Intl Power.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 21st): 47 Stocks at 52 Week High A-H Premium

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.</li>
</ul>


With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 1/2 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a>.</li>
<li>Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">FXI</a> and there could be further deviations from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> options.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1/2 changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the HKEX.
Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the FXI and there could be further deviations from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) options.


FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

China

China Railway Group Limited offers transportation facility construction services. The Company builds railways, roads, tunnels, and bridges. China Railway Group also conducts engineering survey, equipment manufacturing, real estate development, and investment businesses.

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China Railway Group (601390 CH)

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

CATL is said to be raising US$5bn at a single digit discount with half the deal allocated to cornerstones. Listing could take place late May. Index...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 11th): Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma, China Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Beigene, China Oilfield Services, Dfzq, Innocare Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 21st): 47 Stocks at 52 Week High A-H Premium

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Huadian Power, Livzon Pharma, Joinn Lab, Maanshan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

There could be 3 changes in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

There could be many constituent changes to the FXI this year. That will alter the returns, volatility and drawdown of the ETF and open up trading...

Brian Freitas

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