External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A lackluster 4Q22. Subsequent to a strong 3Q, 4Q volume has been unexciting partly due to slow season and lockdowns.</li><li>Compared to a 0.7% YoY decline in 1H, management expects FY volume to hover at break-even.</li><li>Premium/ sub-premium growth continued to outperform group average at ~10% within 2H (and hence FY) thanks to Heineken. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

A lackluster 4Q22. Subsequent to a strong 3Q, 4Q volume has been unexciting partly due to slow season and lockdowns.Compared to a 0.7% YoY decline in 1H, management expects FY volume to hover at break-even.Premium/ sub-premium growth continued to outperform group average at ~10% within 2H (and hence FY) thanks to Heineken. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) – Another Positive Year for 2023

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.</li><li>The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 5.4ppt, delivering 0.2% return (vs MSCI China 5.6%).</li><li>China Meidong Auto and Innovent Biologics delivered over 20% of return, and 4 of our 21 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 5.4ppt, delivering 0.2% return (vs MSCI China 5.6%).China Meidong Auto and Innovent Biologics delivered over 20% of return, and 4 of our 21 long ideas outperformed the benchmark.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Research Focus List (November Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

<ul><li>3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.</li><li>In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.</li><li>When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>After market close yesterday, CRB announced that, through its wholly owned subsidiary, CRWH, it will acquire 55.2% of the shares of Guizhou Jinsha Jiaojiu Winery Industry, a sauce-flavored baijiu producer in Guizhou, at a total consideration of RMB12.3bn.</li><li>The consideration comprises of RMB1.03bn capital injection and RMB11.27bn of share purchase.</li><li>Considering an implied EV (at 100% stake) of RMB22.3bn and RMB1.3bn net profits achieved for 2021, the acquisition is valued at 17.0 P/E.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

After market close yesterday, CRB announced that, through its wholly owned subsidiary, CRWH, it will acquire 55.2% of the shares of Guizhou Jinsha Jiaojiu Winery Industry, a sauce-flavored baijiu producer in Guizhou, at a total consideration of RMB12.3bn.The consideration comprises of RMB1.03bn capital injection and RMB11.27bn of share purchase.Considering an implied EV (at 100% stake) of RMB22.3bn and RMB1.3bn net profits achieved for 2021, the acquisition is valued at 17.0 P/E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) – Another Move to Tap into the Baijiu Market; yet with Near-Term Challenges

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings volatility for 3Q is unlikely to be drastic.</li><li>For items that we monitored, our channel checks suggested that sales momentum was largely on track to us - low-teen growth for CRB, double-digit growth for Nongfu, and particularly sequential double- digit recovery for Mengniu and Feihe.</li><li>Separately, the lockdown of Hainan since August could mean downside revision potential for CTGDF despite a well-maintained GPM.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings volatility for 3Q is unlikely to be drastic.For items that we monitored, our channel checks suggested that sales momentum was largely on track to us - low-teen growth for CRB, double-digit growth for Nongfu, and particularly sequential double- digit recovery for Mengniu and Feihe.Separately, the lockdown of Hainan since August could mean downside revision potential for CTGDF despite a well-maintained GPM.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Addressing Recent Investors’ Concerns

Hong Kong

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

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China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)

CR Beer (291 HK) – Another Positive Year for 2023

ASP-wise, management expects a FY MSD increase YoY and this came in consistent to our expectation. The growth should also lead to a stable GPM for...

CMB International

CMBI Research Focus List (November Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

In our last report dated 17 October, we highlighted a list of 21 long ideas.The basket (equal weighted) of these 21 stocks underperformed MSCI...

CMB International

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below...

CMB International

CR Beer (291 HK) – Another Move to Tap into the Baijiu Market; yet with Near-Term Challenges

Considering an implied EV (at 100% stake) of RMB22.3bn and RMB1.3bn net profits achieved for 2021, the acquisition is valued at 17.0 P/E.

CMB International

China Consumer – Addressing Recent Investors’ Concerns

A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings...

CMB International

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