Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> could raise between HK$26-33bn (US$3.4-4.2bn) in its H-share listing depending on the H-shares discount and exercise of the overallotment option.</li>
<li>The H-shares could get Fast Entry to certain indices and regular entry to others depending on the number of shares that are allotted to cornerstone and/or strategic investors.</li>
<li>The H-shares will be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the end of the price stabilisation period. Inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index will come later.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH) could raise between HK$26-33bn (US$3.4-4.2bn) in its H-share listing depending on the H-shares discount and exercise of the overallotment option.
The H-shares could get Fast Entry to certain indices and regular entry to others depending on the number of shares that are allotted to cornerstone and/or strategic investors.
The H-shares will be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the end of the price stabilisation period. Inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index will come later.


SF Holding (002352 CH): H-Share Listing & Index Implications

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be USD 538m and highlight flows for Meituan, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the outflows to be USD 538m and highlight flows for Meituan, BYD.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of scale.</li><li>Apart from its products, we like the Company’s high self-discipline in costs and business expansion even as it is much more resourceful than before.</li><li>We project Li Auto’s 2Q23E revenue to more than triple YoY to RMB 27.9bn, as its sales volume beat guidance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of scale.Apart from its products, we like the Company’s high self-discipline in costs and business expansion even as it is much more resourceful than before.We project Li Auto’s 2Q23E revenue to more than triple YoY to RMB 27.9bn, as its sales volume beat guidance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector.</li>
<li>Visible ASP growth and margin improvement over the next few years make the sector an attractive investment opportunity.</li>
<li>Prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> as it offers the best risk-reward within the sector.  </li>
</ul>


China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector.
Visible ASP growth and margin improvement over the next few years make the sector an attractive investment opportunity.
Prefer China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) as it offers the best risk-reward within the sector.  


China Beer Sector: One of The Few Consumer Sectors That Are Still Trading Up After The Pandemic

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2Q preview. 1H23 operational performance came in largely in line with midsingle-digit volume growth, although that of 1Q was slightly stronger than 2Q due to Chinese New Year impact.</li><li>By segment, sub-premium+ delivered 20% growth, with Heineken achieving 30%+.</li><li>Meanwhile, SuperX and others saw teen growth. By channel, restaurant demand has fully recovered to prepandemic levels, while that from night life has been ramping up. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2Q preview. 1H23 operational performance came in largely in line with midsingle-digit volume growth, although that of 1Q was slightly stronger than 2Q due to Chinese New Year impact.By segment, sub-premium+ delivered 20% growth, with Heineken achieving 30%+.Meanwhile, SuperX and others saw teen growth. By channel, restaurant demand has fully recovered to prepandemic levels, while that from night life has been ramping up. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) – Expecting a Solid 1H23

Hong Kong

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

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China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the outflows to be USD 38m and highlight flows for Meituan and BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of...

CMB International

China Beer Sector: One of The Few Consumer Sectors That Are Still Trading Up After The Pandemic

China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector. One of the best consumer sectors to...

Steve

CR Beer (291 HK) – Expecting a Solid 1H23

1H23 operational performance came in largely in line with midsingle-digit volume growth, although that of 1Q was slightly stronger than 2Q due to...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SF Holding (002352 CH): H-Share Listing & Index Implications

SF Holdings could raise between HK$26-33bn in its H-shares listing. The discount vs A-shares and cornerstone/strategic allocation will be key in...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the outflows to be USD 38m and highlight flows for Meituan and BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMBI Research Focus List (July Edition) – Our best high conviction stock ideas

We project Li Auto’s net profit to rise 27% QoQ to RMB 1.2bn in 2Q23E. Profitability in FY24E could also beat expectation on greater economies of...

CMB International

China Beer Sector: One of The Few Consumer Sectors That Are Still Trading Up After The Pandemic

China's beer sector is still trading up, despite the deflation concerns of the overall China consumer sector. One of the best consumer sectors to...

Steve

CR Beer (291 HK) – Expecting a Solid 1H23

1H23 operational performance came in largely in line with midsingle-digit volume growth, although that of 1Q was slightly stronger than 2Q due to...

CMB International