Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a> is offering 347.8m shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$13.5-14.5/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$5.8bn (US$474m).</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors will take up nearly half the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.</li>
<li>Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 - that will also result in Stock Connect inclusion. The next index inclusion will take place in June.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is offering 347.8m shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$13.5-14.5/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$5.8bn (US$474m).
Cornerstone investors will take up nearly half the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 - that will also result in Stock Connect inclusion. The next index inclusion will take place in June.


China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Index Inclusions & Stock Connect in 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-2460-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162418" rel="noopener">CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The whole industry has entered a medium to low-speed growth stage, and the industry's future growth rate will remain single-digit growth. So, CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable.</li>
<li>Due to serious homogenization/competition of packaged drinking water market, there’s not much room for innovation/iteration. CR Beverage's sales-driven model is hard to bring “new story” to break through the dilemma. </li>
<li>CR Beverage is clearly inferior to Nongfu Spring. Its valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. We think reasonable valuation of CR Beverage is about US$4 billion (or lower).</li>
</ul>


The whole industry has entered a medium to low-speed growth stage, and the industry's future growth rate will remain single-digit growth. So, CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable.
Due to serious homogenization/competition of packaged drinking water market, there’s not much room for innovation/iteration. CR Beverage's sales-driven model is hard to bring “new story” to break through the dilemma. 
CR Beverage is clearly inferior to Nongfu Spring. Its valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. We think reasonable valuation of CR Beverage is about US$4 billion (or lower).


Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Due to the Pain Points, High Valuation Is Not Justified

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the live IPOs front,  the coming week will see a whole lot of listings across the region.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were mainly deals in Australia this week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the live IPOs front,  the coming week will see a whole lot of listings across the region.
On the placements front, there were mainly deals in Australia this week.


ECM Weekly (21st Oct 2024) - Tokyo Metro, China Resources, Horizon Robotics, Hyundai India, Waaree

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), Rigaku Holdings (268A JP), Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) and Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Sun Art Retail (6808 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).



Weekly Deals Digest (20 Oct) - China TCM, GA Pack, Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, CR Beverage, Horizon Robotic

China

China Resources Beverage is a professional ready-to-drink soft beverage company in China. It primarily manufactures and sells packaged water products, including bottled and barreled water under brands like C'estbon, and various other ready-to-drink soft beverages such as tea, juice, sports drinks, and coffee. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, and was founded in 1984.

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China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)