External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We suggest investors to accumulate CR Land after the recent pull back.</li><li>Our main thesis is its visible earnings growth acceleration (1%/11%/17% YoY in 2022-24E) driven by robust rental income (20-30% CAGR) and sales back to teens growth in 2023E.</li><li>This would help not widen its gap with others (FY22E - 20% YoY on average), but also make its 14th Five Year target closer to reach on the contracted sales side (+15% 2020-2025E CAGR), especially with the chance of policy relaxation in Tier 1 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We suggest investors to accumulate CR Land after the recent pull back.Our main thesis is its visible earnings growth acceleration (1%/11%/17% YoY in 2022-24E) driven by robust rental income (20-30% CAGR) and sales back to teens growth in 2023E.This would help not widen its gap with others (FY22E - 20% YoY on average), but also make its 14th Five Year target closer to reach on the contracted sales side (+15% 2020-2025E CAGR), especially with the chance of policy relaxation in Tier 1 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Land (1109 HK) – Outperforming FY22E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our CNY channel check indicates the following trends: 1) Shopping malls are the key beneficiaries after reopening.</li><li>Wuyue/Wanda/CR all saw quick traffic recovery after COVID and restaurants performed the best. 2) Decent one-off pent-up demand for home purchase may boost Feb sales, in line with our sales leading indicator GAIN.</li><li>3) Overbuilt and unsold inventory poses the biggest risk for the property and financial system. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our CNY channel check indicates the following trends: 1) Shopping malls are the key beneficiaries after reopening.Wuyue/Wanda/CR all saw quick traffic recovery after COVID and restaurants performed the best. 2) Decent one-off pent-up demand for home purchase may boost Feb sales, in line with our sales leading indicator GAIN.3) Overbuilt and unsold inventory poses the biggest risk for the property and financial system. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – CNY: Crowded Malls

<ul><li>Due to COVID and early CNY this year, we have not seen any meaningful sign of recovery in property and its supply chain.</li><li>In terms of breakdown, property completion&gt;sales&gt;new start shown by 1) Completion-driven materials Aluminum and float glass saw WoW price up 2.9%/0.3%.</li><li>This is partly helped by direct funding support for home completion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Due to COVID and early CNY this year, we have not seen any meaningful sign of recovery in property and its supply chain.In terms of breakdown, property completion&gt;sales&gt;new start shown by 1) Completion-driven materials Aluminum and float glass saw WoW price up 2.9%/0.3%.This is partly helped by direct funding support for home completion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Can we expect post-CNY recovery?

<ul><li>In-line NBS Dec data concluded the hard-landing 2022 for property market with sales value/property investment down 27/10% YoY.</li><li>Looking into 2023, we think the recovery of new home market still takes time and expect sales and investment to continue falling at -10/-5% (slightly more negative than consensus).</li><li>The key investment themes for this year are quick recovery in existing home market and property supply chain to enjoy direct policy support (RMB350bn Home completion funding, RMB100bn for social housing).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In-line NBS Dec data concluded the hard-landing 2022 for property market with sales value/property investment down 27/10% YoY.Looking into 2023, we think the recovery of new home market still takes time and expect sales and investment to continue falling at -10/-5% (slightly more negative than consensus).The key investment themes for this year are quick recovery in existing home market and property supply chain to enjoy direct policy support (RMB350bn Home completion funding, RMB100bn for social housing).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Silver lining lies on relaxation in Tier 1 cities

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.</li><li>This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.</li><li>In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.</li></ul>

The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

Hong Kong

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

CR Land (1109 HK) – Outperforming FY22E

Our main thesis is its visible earnings growth acceleration (1%/11%/17% YoY in 2022-24E) driven by robust rental income (20-30% CAGR) and sales...

CMB International

China Property Sector – CNY: Crowded Malls

Wuyue/Wanda/CR all saw quick traffic recovery after COVID and restaurants performed the best. 2) Decent one-off pent-up demand for home purchase...

CMB International

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Can we expect post-CNY recovery?

Due to COVID and early CNY this year, we have not seen any meaningful sign of recovery in property and its supply chain.

CMB International

China Property Sector – Silver lining lies on relaxation in Tier 1 cities

In-line NBS Dec data concluded the hard-landing 2022 for property market with sales value/property investment down 27/10% YoY.

CMB International

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes,...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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