Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a> brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a> broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.
</li>
</ul>


Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong

Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK) brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.


Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down. After JD Health/Alibaba Health enter this industry, the game rule changes. </li>
<li>In the short term, the offline chain pharmacies, JD Health, Alibaba Health, etc. would still have the opportunity to carve up market share under the trend of prescription outflow.</li>
<li>In the long term, it depends on who're the first to establish new omni-channel retail scenarios, because the "new retail" model would comprehensively surpass traditional model from cost to experience.</li>
</ul>


China's retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down. After JD Health/Alibaba Health enter this industry, the game rule changes. 
In the short term, the offline chain pharmacies, JD Health, Alibaba Health, etc. would still have the opportunity to carve up market share under the trend of prescription outflow.
In the long term, it depends on who're the first to establish new omni-channel retail scenarios, because the "new retail" model would comprehensively surpass traditional model from cost to experience.


China Retail Pharmacy Industry - New Game Rule, New Challenges, New Outlook

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Hong Kong

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group is an integrated pharmaceutical company engaged in the research and development, manufacture, distribution, and retail of pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Its offerings include chemical drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, biological drugs, and nutritional products, covering various therapeutic areas. The company also provides warehousing, logistics, and supply chain solutions. It was formally established in 2007 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group (3320 HK)

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China Resources Pharmaceutical Group (3320 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

China Retail Pharmacy Industry - New Game Rule, New Challenges, New Outlook

China's retail pharmacy market has entered a new era with new game rule.As industry growth is slowing down, which companies are the first to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

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