Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started trending up. Nonetheless, investors have been discreet while backing a company. Since the start of the year, Gaslog in the LNG shipping and StealthGas among the LPG ship operators have yielded handsome returns. We believe attractive valuation was one of the driving factor, which led investors to bottom fishing.<ul><li>LPG shipping – US ethylene plants to aid handysize vessels</li><li>LPG shipping – downside capped in coaster segment</li><li>LNG shipping remains subdued, but will improve from 2018</li><li>Chinese effect – gaining prominence in gas shipping, </li><li>China natural gas demand to show steady rise</li><li>China needs additional LNG to meet its growing natural gas demand</li><li>Chinese effect – New shipping capacity required for growing imports</li><li>Chinese LPG consumption is also expected to increase</li></ul>

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started trending up. Nonetheless, investors have been discreet while backing a company. Since the start of the year, Gaslog in the LNG shipping and StealthGas among the LPG ship operators have yielded handsome returns. We believe attractive valuation was one of the driving factor, which led investors to bottom fishing.LPG shipping – US ethylene plants to aid handysize vesselsLPG shipping – downside capped in coaster segmentLNG shipping remains subdued, but will improve from 2018Chinese effect – gaining prominence in gas shipping, China natural gas demand to show steady riseChina needs additional LNG to meet its growing natural gas demandChinese effect – New shipping capacity required for growing importsChinese LPG consumption is also expected to increase

Gas Shipping - Gaining Traction Amid Recovery in Oil Prices

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real economy in China continues to stabilize and even expand.  Virtually all granular data collected in May 2016, supports the hypothesis that real output has not simply stabilized but grown. This leads us to believe that current estimates of both official and unofficial PMI due to be released on June 1, underestimate the expected value.  Wind currently provides…

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real economy in China continues to stabilize and even expand.  Virtually all granular data collected in May 2016, supports the hypothesis that real output has not simply stabilized but grown. This leads us to believe that current estimates of both official and unofficial PMI due to be released on June 1, underestimate the expected value.  Wind currently provides…

Early PMI Reading Before Official June 1 Release

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes<ul><li>Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkish</li><li>Fed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)</li><li>Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?</li><li>Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY</li></ul>

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikesWhilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkishFed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a quick update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/be-aggressive-in-q1-2016-and-be-defensive-through-rest-of-2016" target="_blank">my start-of-the year call</a> for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/126/original/2.png?1463320298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8126"><figcaption class="figcaption">Dollar</figcaption></figure>…

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. Dollar…

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

China

China Shenhua Energy is a globally integrated coal-based energy company primarily engaged in the production and sale of coal and electricity, along with railway, port, and shipping transportation services. The company also operates in coal-to-olefins businesses, producing products like methanol, polyethylene, and polypropylene. It was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

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China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK)

Gas Shipping - Gaining Traction Amid Recovery in Oil Prices

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim...

Daniel Tabbush

Early PMI Reading Before Official June 1 Release

While it is built up on leverage which is built upon leverage which is built upon even more leverage, there is strong evidence that the real...

Christopher Balding

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more...

Kay Van-Petersen

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2....

Hao Wang, CFA

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