HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A document titled "<em>Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain</em>" would completely change the outlook/investment logic of China's innovative drugs.</li>
<li>We predict that due to the early opening of TCM formula granules VBP in some provinces and intensifying competition, the market pattern of TCM formula granules would face reshaping.</li>
<li>After the atropine eye drops is approved by the NMPA, Xingqi’s performance growth will accelerate. Supported by favorable policies, its market value is expected to reach above RMB30 billion.</li>
</ul>


A document titled "Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain" would completely change the outlook/investment logic of China's innovative drugs.
We predict that due to the early opening of TCM formula granules VBP in some provinces and intensifying competition, the market pattern of TCM formula granules would face reshaping.
After the atropine eye drops is approved by the NMPA, Xingqi’s performance growth will accelerate. Supported by favorable policies, its market value is expected to reach above RMB30 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.15)- New Policy of Innovative Drug, TCM Formula Granules, Xingqi Pharma

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2021's vintage of my 5 High Convictions Ideas did extremely well</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> was up 543%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17074:1" rel="noopener">Rex International Holding (REXI SP)</a> was up 80%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straits-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15745:1" rel="noopener">Straits Trading (STRTR SP)</a> was up almost 74% and Shougang Fushan just under 40%.</li>
<li>The underperformer award goes to HK restaurant operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taste-gourmet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27339:1" rel="noopener">Taste Gourmet Group Ltd (8371 HK)</a> as it declined 25%. Below the fold we'll give our 5 High Conviction Ideas for 2022.</li>
</ul>


2021's vintage of my 5 High Convictions Ideas did extremely well

PC Partner (1263 HK) was up 543%, Rex International Holding (REXI SP) was up 80%, Straits Trading (STRTR SP) was up almost 74% and Shougang Fushan just under 40%.
The underperformer award goes to HK restaurant operator Taste Gourmet Group Ltd (8371 HK) as it declined 25%. Below the fold we'll give our 5 High Conviction Ideas for 2022.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2021... And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2022

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. </li>
<li>The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   </li>
</ul>


On 21 February, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. 
The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The performance of most TCM formula granule enterprises showed slow growth or even decline due to VBP in 2023. Although VBP will continue, it also brings opportunities for related companies. </li>
<li>Customized production, expensive upstream raw materials/production equipment, complex supply chain systems, etc. are all major reasons for the high prices of CAR-T therapy, but we see hope for changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gan-lee-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36237:1" rel="noopener">Gan &amp; Lee Pharmaceuticals (603087 CH)</a>’s core insulin business will continue to have decent growth based on positive VBP renewal results. It's expected that in 2024, performance would further rebound.</li>
</ul>


The performance of most TCM formula granule enterprises showed slow growth or even decline due to VBP in 2023. Although VBP will continue, it also brings opportunities for related companies. 
Customized production, expensive upstream raw materials/production equipment, complex supply chain systems, etc. are all major reasons for the high prices of CAR-T therapy, but we see hope for changes.

Gan &amp; Lee Pharmaceuticals (603087 CH)’s core insulin business will continue to have decent growth based on positive VBP renewal results. It's expected that in 2024, performance would further rebound.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T's Price, Gan & Lee Pharma

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.</li>
<li>GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.</li>
<li>In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.</li>
</ul>


The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.
In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

China

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) is the largest manufacturer of Chinese medicine injections, soft capsules, and granules in China.

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.15)- New Policy of Innovative Drug, TCM Formula Granules, Xingqi Pharma

New policy of innovative drug is a big deal. We've reasons to start being optimistic.The market pattern of TCM formula granules will face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2021... And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2022

2021's vintage of 5 High Conviction Ideas did extremely well led by star performer Pc Partner. Our new selection for 2022 will hopefully have some...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T's Price, Gan & Lee Pharma

TCM formula granule VBP brings challenge for company, but it also brings hope. There're breakthrough point of CAR-T's price decline. Gan & Lee has...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Payment policy relaxation will drive rapid sales growth of TCM injection.GLP-1 has defects-patients will lose not only fat but also muscle. Mr...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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