HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The results of the first VBP of TCM formula granules in China were announced. 200 varieties of TCM formula granules have been included, with an average price reduction of 50.77%.</li>
<li>According to the recently released <em>Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care in 2022</em>, we have listed some key points worth investors' attention.</li>
<li>Livzon’s 23Q3 performance was below expectations, which was more related to external factors such as anti-corruption campaign, VBP. However, Chairman's share buyback proposal indicates possibility of a future reversal.</li>
</ul>


The results of the first VBP of TCM formula granules in China were announced. 200 varieties of TCM formula granules have been included, with an average price reduction of 50.77%.
According to the recently released Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care in 2022, we have listed some key points worth investors' attention.
Livzon’s 23Q3 performance was below expectations, which was more related to external factors such as anti-corruption campaign, VBP. However, Chairman's share buyback proposal indicates possibility of a future reversal.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Medical Statistics to Watch, Livzon

China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For a considerable period of time, the industry has been speculating about when the large-scale VBP of TCM formula granules will officially begin. Now, here it comes. </li>
<li>Primary market and other financing except IPO in European and US biopharma industry shows a significant signal of recovery. However, IPOs remain stagnant. </li>
<li>We analyzed key points about China Resources Sanjiu. Sanjiu is expected to have better performance in 2023 than 2022, but we advise investors to allow a sufficient margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


For a considerable period of time, the industry has been speculating about when the large-scale VBP of TCM formula granules will officially begin. Now, here it comes. 
Primary market and other financing except IPO in European and US biopharma industry shows a significant signal of recovery. However, IPOs remain stagnant. 
We analyzed key points about China Resources Sanjiu. Sanjiu is expected to have better performance in 2023 than 2022, but we advise investors to allow a sufficient margin of safety.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Global Financing Rebound, CR Sanjiu

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

<ul>
<li>The results of National TCM VBP were released, with average price reduction of 49.36%, involving multiple large varieties with sales over RMB1 billion and exclusive products from many listed companies.</li>
<li>CDE will move closer to the FDA's standard for approving new drugs. So, pharmaceutical companies need to update clinical strategies timely according to the situation, otherwise unexpected events may occur.</li>
<li>We analyzed some key points about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27410:1" rel="noopener">Hua Medicine Ltd (2552 HK)</a>. We think its core drug Dorzagliatin still has many uncertainties that are worth investors' attention.</li>
</ul>


The results of National TCM VBP were released, with average price reduction of 49.36%, involving multiple large varieties with sales over RMB1 billion and exclusive products from many listed companies.
CDE will move closer to the FDA's standard for approving new drugs. So, pharmaceutical companies need to update clinical strategies timely according to the situation, otherwise unexpected events may occur.
We analyzed some key points about Hua Medicine Ltd (2552 HK). We think its core drug Dorzagliatin still has many uncertainties that are worth investors' attention.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) - National TCM VBP Results, CDE Changes Game Rule, Hua Medicine

China Shineway Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shineway’s 23Q1 performance growth exceeded expectations, mainly driven by TCM formula granules products and injection products. A surge of COVID infection rate in China since 22Q4 was an important reason. </li>
<li>Based on data, revenue proportion of COVID-19 related products is not low. So, related sales growth in following quarters this year would decrease as the dividend period of pandemic ends.  </li>
<li>As the growth of TCM formula granules is expected to offset the slowdown of COVID-19 TCM products, Shineway’s overall revenue growth would still be strong in 2023. Valuation isn’t cheap.</li>
</ul>


Shineway’s 23Q1 performance growth exceeded expectations, mainly driven by TCM formula granules products and injection products. A surge of COVID infection rate in China since 22Q4 was an important reason. 
Based on data, revenue proportion of COVID-19 related products is not low. So, related sales growth in following quarters this year would decrease as the dividend period of pandemic ends.  
As the growth of TCM formula granules is expected to offset the slowdown of COVID-19 TCM products, Shineway’s overall revenue growth would still be strong in 2023. Valuation isn’t cheap.


China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) 23Q1 - Growth Is Likely to Slow in Coming Quarters

China

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) is the largest manufacturer of Chinese medicine injections, soft capsules, and granules in China.

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China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Medical Statistics to Watch, Livzon

Results of the first TCM formula granule VBP were announced. Some key points of Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18) - TCM Formula Granules VBP, Global Financing Rebound, CR Sanjiu

China's first TCM formula granules VBP begins.Primary market financing in global biopharma industry rebound, but IPO remains weak.China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.23) - National TCM VBP Results, CDE Changes Game Rule, Hua Medicine

Results of National TCM VBP were released, involving some big varieties. CDE changes game rule on drug approva. Companies has to change clinical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) 23Q1 - Growth Is Likely to Slow in Coming Quarters

Shineway had high growth in 23Q1, but COVID-19 TCM sales would decrease in coming quarters. Since TCM formula granules will be the main performance...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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