HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>JZB33 is expected to have more growth potential than JZB30. However, the rhFSH market is highly competitive. JZB30/JZB33 not only need to compete with MNCs but also domestic Big Pharma.</li>
<li>The "inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution leads to a high dependence JZB30, JZB33, JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth in the next 3-5 years, thus lacking sustained innovation and growth momentum.</li>
<li>Post-Money valuation was RMB3.09 billion after Series C+ Financing. We think valuation of Jingze should be lower than Henlius, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chengdu-kanghong-pharmaceutical-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24723:1" rel="noopener">Chengdu Kanghong </a>due to the concerns on commercialization outlook/Biosimilar VBP.</li>
</ul>


JZB33 is expected to have more growth potential than JZB30. However, the rhFSH market is highly competitive. JZB30/JZB33 not only need to compete with MNCs but also domestic Big Pharma.
The "inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution leads to a high dependence JZB30, JZB33, JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth in the next 3-5 years, thus lacking sustained innovation and growth momentum.
Post-Money valuation was RMB3.09 billion after Series C+ Financing. We think valuation of Jingze should be lower than Henlius, Chengdu Kanghong due to the concerns on commercialization outlook/Biosimilar VBP.


Pre-IPO Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) - The Concerns and the Outlook

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.</li>
<li>Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.</li>
</ul>


Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.
Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.
Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.  </li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.  
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the privatization of Henlius failed at the beginning of 2025, we have witnessed its stock price constantly hitting new highs.The market has recognized Henlius’ strong fundamentals and promising outlook.</li>
<li>Based on conservative forecast, the peak sales of important products +  other promising candidates/indication expansion/drug combination/new licensing cooperation, etc., total revenue of Henlius is expected to reach RMB10 billion.</li>
<li>RMB30 billion is the valuation bottom line for Henlius. The upper limit of valuation may reach RMB36-45 billion in the future. Exercise Price of the Options granted is HK$50.25/share.</li>
</ul>


Since the privatization of Henlius failed at the beginning of 2025, we have witnessed its stock price constantly hitting new highs.The market has recognized Henlius’ strong fundamentals and promising outlook.
Based on conservative forecast, the peak sales of important products +  other promising candidates/indication expansion/drug combination/new licensing cooperation, etc., total revenue of Henlius is expected to reach RMB10 billion.
RMB30 billion is the valuation bottom line for Henlius. The upper limit of valuation may reach RMB36-45 billion in the future. Exercise Price of the Options granted is HK$50.25/share.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - Thoughts on the Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).</li>
<li>The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.


Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

China

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products, including chemical medicines, bio-chemical medicines, biological engineering medicines, chemical compound crude medicines, antibiotics, micro-ecological preparations, patent Chinese medicines, and diagnosis reagents etc.

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Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (1513 HK)

Pre-IPO Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) - The Concerns and the Outlook

"Inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution lead to high dependence JZB30/JZB33/JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth, thus lacking sustained...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Hansoh and Leads Biolabs bag global outlicensing deals. Chugai’s partner Lilly announced positive P3 result for orforglipron. Celltrion launched...

Tina Banerjee

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - Thoughts on the Valuation Outlook

Despite a failed privatization, Henlius' stock price continues to soar as the market recognizes strong fundamentals/outlook. RMB30B is the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletes for the HSHKBIO in Sep. Couple of surprises. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Jingze Biopharmaceutical (Hefei) - The Concerns and the Outlook

"Inverted pyramid" pipeline distribution lead to high dependence JZB30/JZB33/JZB05 for Jingze's performance growth, thus lacking sustained...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Hansoh and Leads Biolabs bag global outlicensing deals. Chugai’s partner Lilly announced positive P3 result for orforglipron. Celltrion launched...

Tina Banerjee

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - Thoughts on the Valuation Outlook

​Despite a failed privatization, Henlius' stock price continues to soar as the market recognizes strong fundamentals/outlook. RMB30B is the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletes for the HSHKBIO in Sep. Couple of surprises. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Despite a failed privatization, Henlius' stock price continues to soar as the market recognizes strong fundamentals/outlook. RMB30B is the...