Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> 's  stock is down 40% from its mid-May high triggered by public spat with rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomage-biotechnology-corp-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30390:1" rel="noopener">Bloomage Biotechnology</a> over collagen content labelling in its skincare line.</li>
<li>Biogene’s use of recombinant collagen is rapidly emerging as the new gold standard in anti-aging skincare, giving it a clear edge over traditional ingredient players like Bloomage.</li>
<li>Giant Biogene now trades at a steep discount to peers in the functional beauty space; current valuations offer meaningful downside protection, and strong upside potential as sentiment stabilizes.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) 's  stock is down 40% from its mid-May high triggered by public spat with rival Bloomage Biotechnology over collagen content labelling in its skincare line.
Biogene’s use of recombinant collagen is rapidly emerging as the new gold standard in anti-aging skincare, giving it a clear edge over traditional ingredient players like Bloomage.
Giant Biogene now trades at a steep discount to peers in the functional beauty space; current valuations offer meaningful downside protection, and strong upside potential as sentiment stabilizes.


Giant Biogene (2367 HK): Beaten Down Beauty. Valuation Upside After 40% Downslide

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.


2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>FOREST CABIN’s been subject to administrative penalties for false advertising. The natural ingredient that consumers truly pursue holds the highest premium in essence oil, but its content/efficacy is exaggerated.</li>
<li>Pre-IPO valuation reached over RMB3.8bn. Some investors may believe that, given that FOREST CABIN's profitability has initially been proven, its valuation is attractive. However, think FOREST CABIN have some issues.</li>
<li>Valuation of FOREST CABIN should be lower than Mao Geping. A comfortable range could be P/E of 20-30x. If future growth declined/profit margin deteriorates, valuation may fall to 10-20x P/E.</li>
</ul>


FOREST CABIN’s been subject to administrative penalties for false advertising. The natural ingredient that consumers truly pursue holds the highest premium in essence oil, but its content/efficacy is exaggerated.
Pre-IPO valuation reached over RMB3.8bn. Some investors may believe that, given that FOREST CABIN's profitability has initially been proven, its valuation is attractive. However, think FOREST CABIN have some issues.
Valuation of FOREST CABIN should be lower than Mao Geping. A comfortable range could be P/E of 20-30x. If future growth declined/profit margin deteriorates, valuation may fall to 10-20x P/E.


Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Giant Biogene reported 1H25 revenue of RMB3,113mn, up 22.5% YoY and representing 46% of our prior full-year estimate, broadly in line with historical seasonality.</li><li>Gross margin declined slightly to 81.7% (-0.7ppts YoY) mainly due to a more diversified product mix.</li><li>We expect gradual recovery in online sales and influencer live-streaming through 2H25E. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Giant Biogene reported 1H25 revenue of RMB3,113mn, up 22.5% YoY and representing 46% of our prior full-year estimate, broadly in line with historical seasonality.Gross margin declined slightly to 81.7% (-0.7ppts YoY) mainly due to a more diversified product mix.We expect gradual recovery in online sales and influencer live-streaming through 2H25E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) - Resilient Revenue Growth Driven by Multiple Channels and Dual Brands

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).</li>
<li>The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.


Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

China

Giant Biogene Holding Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and distributes, and markets skin treatment products. The Company produces recombinant collagen and rare ginsenosides skin treatment products, functional foods, and other products. Giant Biogene Holding conducts businesses in China.

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Giant Biogene (2367 HK)