Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A.

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A. 

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

My updates back in December to reiterate the negative in containers (and bulk) and anticipated a weak 2016, to be sure. But in recent weeks it appears the market has gotten even weaker. I am sure our friends from Drewry have experienced this as well. A few key details below on rates that have gone even further south than 2009.In recent weeks we understand from friends that some markets in Intra-Asia have gone into negative pricing.This means that lines have to try to recoup some of their losses…

My updates back in December to reiterate the negative in containers (and bulk) and anticipated a weak 2016, to be sure. But in recent weeks it appears the market has gotten even weaker. I am sure our friends from Drewry have experienced this as well. A few key details below on rates that have gone even further south than 2009.In recent weeks we understand from friends that some markets in Intra-Asia have gone into negative pricing.This means that lines have to try to recoup some of their losses…

Container Shipping Industry Last Few Weeks Factoring in Doomsday

• Global macroeconomics: The economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US Fed to postpone the next interest rate hike (anticipated to happen in March 2016) because of the global economic turmoil and massive sell-off in emerging markets. Bank of Japan also adopted an aggressive monetary policy as it lowered interest rates to negative 0.1% on excess funds that banks keep with the central bank in an attempt to fight deflation. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has set a lower GDP growth rate of…

• Global macroeconomics: The economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US Fed to postpone the next interest rate hike (anticipated to happen in March 2016) because of the global economic turmoil and massive sell-off in emerging markets. Bank of Japan also adopted an aggressive monetary policy as it lowered interest rates to negative 0.1% on excess funds that banks keep with the central bank in an attempt to fight deflation. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has set a lower GDP growth rate of…

Drewry Maritime Equity Research Monthly Insight - Feb 2016

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activities<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/443/original/ports5.JPG?1454570524" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5443"></figure>Note: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/444/original/ports6.JPG?1454570793" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5444"></figure> Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Hong Kong

China State Construction International is a comprehensive construction and infrastructure investment enterprise. It specializes in building construction, civil engineering, foundation and marine works, prefabricated construction, and curtain wall engineering across Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, and internationally. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

China State Construction International (3311 HK)

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China State Construction International (3311 HK)

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping Industry Last Few Weeks Factoring in Doomsday

My updates back in December to reiterate the negative in containers (and bulk) and anticipated a weak 2016, to be sure. But in recent weeks it...

Charles De Trenck

Drewry Maritime Equity Research Monthly Insight - Feb 2016

• Global macroeconomics: The economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US Fed to postpone the next interest rate hike (anticipated to happen in...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Reasonable port valuation supports M&A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0xSource:...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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