Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

2015: Investors catch a falling knife disguised as pocket of value<img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/981/original/Price%20Performance.JPG?1452658223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4981"> Source: Bloomberg, DMER<ul>
<li>Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of dry bulk companies kept tumbling during the year. DMER’s shipping index, which is based on the market cap of leading dry bulk companies, was down ~43% in 2015.</li>
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Dry bulk owners were confronted with weak shipping demand because of the slowdown in Chinese economy, which resulted in huge losses. BDI touched record lows of 415 at the onset of…</li>
</ul>

2015: Investors catch a falling knife disguised as pocket of value Source: Bloomberg, DMER
Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of dry bulk companies kept tumbling during the year. DMER’s shipping index, which is based on the market cap of leading dry bulk companies, was down ~43% in 2015.

Dry bulk owners were confronted with weak shipping demand because of the slowdown in Chinese economy, which resulted in huge losses. BDI touched record lows of 415 at the onset of…


Dry Bulk Shipping - 2016 - Falling Knife Disguised as Pocket of Value ?

Ominous start to the year for container shipping with Drewry forecasting container shipping profitability to deteriorate in 2016. Ocean freight rates for cargo moving under contracts on the major East-West trade routes witnessing another reduction in the last quarter of 2015, according to Drewry’s Benchmarking Club, a closed user group of multinational retailers and manufacturers who closely monitor their contract freight rates. The Drewry Benchmarking Club Contract Rate Index, based on Trans…

Ominous start to the year for container shipping with Drewry forecasting container shipping profitability to deteriorate in 2016. Ocean freight rates for cargo moving under contracts on the major East-West trade routes witnessing another reduction in the last quarter of 2015, according to Drewry’s Benchmarking Club, a closed user group of multinational retailers and manufacturers who closely monitor their contract freight rates. The Drewry Benchmarking Club Contract Rate Index, based on Trans…

2016 - Washout Year for Container Shipping

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr. Pessina had built up Alliance Boots into a leading European and Asian health &amp; beauty retail chain. We expect the company to resume its acquisition program, but the US market looks like the top priority at the moment. WBA will increase its presence in Asia: the only question is timing.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr. Pessina had built up Alliance Boots into a leading European and Asian health &amp; beauty retail chain. We expect the company to resume its acquisition program, but the US market looks like the top priority at the moment. WBA will increase its presence in Asia: the only question is timing.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Names Permanent CEO: Global Expansion to Continue

Hong Kong

China State Construction International is a comprehensive construction and infrastructure investment enterprise. It specializes in building construction, civil engineering, foundation and marine works, prefabricated construction, and curtain wall engineering across Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, and internationally. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

China State Construction International (3311 HK)

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China State Construction International (3311 HK)

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Dry Bulk Shipping - 2016 - Falling Knife Disguised as Pocket of Value ?

2015: Investors catch a falling knife disguised as pocket of value Source: Bloomberg, DMER Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

2016 - Washout Year for Container Shipping

Ominous start to the year for container shipping with Drewry forecasting container shipping profitability to deteriorate in 2016. Ocean freight...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Walgreens Boots Alliance Names Permanent CEO: Global Expansion to Continue

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA: US) has named Executive Vice Chairman and interim CEO Stefano Pessina as CEO, a move that has been expected. Mr....

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

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