Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.</li>
<li>Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.</li>
<li>As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.
Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.
As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market.  Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities, telecom, and energy sectors have strengthened.</li>
<li>Mainland investors have slowed net buying through the Southbound Connect platform.  Dividend yield, value and low volatility are leading investment factors since October. Growth and momentum factors have lagged.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> is initiated as BUY at Shenwan Hongyuan.  VLCC rates to China are rising amid U.S. oil sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market.  Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities, telecom, and energy sectors have strengthened.
Mainland investors have slowed net buying through the Southbound Connect platform.  Dividend yield, value and low volatility are leading investment factors since October. Growth and momentum factors have lagged.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is initiated as BUY at Shenwan Hongyuan.  VLCC rates to China are rising amid U.S. oil sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (December 17)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.</li>
<li>At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

China

China Tower Corporation Limited is a state-owned telecommunication company that provides telecommunication tower infrastructure services, including construction, maintenance, and operation of base station ancillary facilities. The company also offers distributed antenna systems, smart tower services, and energy solutions like power backup and battery exchange. It was founded in July 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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China Tower (788 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (December 17)

Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market. Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities,...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

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