HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/is-there-a-january-effect-in-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85565" rel="noopener">Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index?</a> correctly pointed to a strong Jan 2023. Based on historical pattern, Mar will be weak while Apr is positive.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-webinar-is-there-still-hope-for-crypto-in-2023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:86525" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>Macro factors including Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tension, disappointing US CPI and potentially weak 4Q22 corporate earnings are negative to HSI performance in Mar.</li>
<li>In Apr, focus may shift to positive factors which include improved clarity on US rate after FOMC meeting, better guidances for 1Q23 result and favourable policies after NPC/CPPCC.</li>
</ul>


Our Insight Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index? correctly pointed to a strong Jan 2023. Based on historical pattern, Mar will be weak while Apr is positive.

Macro factors including Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tension, disappointing US CPI and potentially weak 4Q22 corporate earnings are negative to HSI performance in Mar.
In Apr, focus may shift to positive factors which include improved clarity on US rate after FOMC meeting, better guidances for 1Q23 result and favourable policies after NPC/CPPCC.


What Is the Historical HSI Moves in Next Two Months, and Will It Follow This Year?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

<ul>
<li>"Buy the Worst" strategy returned 1.9% in 2022, sharply outperformed HSI's 15% drop. In the last two years, this strategy recorded massive aggregate outperformance of 41pp against HSI.</li>
<li>For 2023, we expect to switch into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden (2007 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Aggressive investors can consider shorting 2022 best-performing portfolio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua (1088 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


"Buy the Worst" strategy returned 1.9% in 2022, sharply outperformed HSI's 15% drop. In the last two years, this strategy recorded massive aggregate outperformance of 41pp against HSI.
For 2023, we expect to switch into Country Garden (2007 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK) and Techtronic Industries (669 HK). 
Aggressive investors can consider shorting 2022 best-performing portfolio of Sands China (1928 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK), China Shenhua (1088 HK) and China Unicom (762 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Big Win in 2022 and Let's See if It Can Sustain in 2023

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into HKEx, Ping An H&amp;T, and outflows from Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Ning, Meituan, Country Garden Service.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into HKEx, Ping An H&amp;T, and outflows from Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Ning, Meituan, Country Garden Service.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 9th): HKEx, Ping An H&T, Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Ning, Meituan

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Weilong Delicious Global Holdi / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)</a>  a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$140m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>According to F&amp;S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, in this note, we will talk about  the final valuations.</li>
</ul>



Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)  a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$140m in its Hong Kong IPO.
According to F&amp;S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, in this note, we will talk about  the final valuations.


Weilong Delicious Global IPO - Tepid Recent Performance Still Makes It Look Expensive

Hong Kong

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

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China Unicom Hong Kong (Adr) (CHU US)

What Is the Historical HSI Moves in Next Two Months, and Will It Follow This Year?

Historically, Mar is a weak month for HSI while Apr is generally with positive return. Macro factors in this year look to support this pattern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, Xiaomi, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Big Win in 2022 and Let's See if It Can Sustain in 2023

"Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by 16.9pp in 2022. For 2023, we expect to switch into Country Garden, Sunny Optical, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 9th): HKEx, Ping An H&T, Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Ning, Meituan

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for HKEx, Ping An H&T, Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Ning, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Weilong Delicious Global IPO - Tepid Recent Performance Still Makes It Look Expensive

Weilong Delicious Global, a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$140m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)