Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100<ul><li>Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…</li><li>DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by now</li><li>As per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleep</li><li>Jun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a week</li><li>WK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event</li></ul>

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by nowAs per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleepJun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a weekWK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Despite the seeming aura of calm that had descended on the RMB and PBOC foreign exchange reserves the past few months, this was a deceptive peace.  The stabilization of PBOC FX reserves was driven almost exclusively by back to back months where either the EUR or the JPY each fell by more than 5% against the USD in one month.  During this same time period, outflows continued to grow rapidly as foreign inflows dropped almost 40%.In the past days, the CNY/CNH spread has drifted apart brought back…

Despite the seeming aura of calm that had descended on the RMB and PBOC foreign exchange reserves the past few months, this was a deceptive peace.  The stabilization of PBOC FX reserves was driven almost exclusively by back to back months where either the EUR or the JPY each fell by more than 5% against the USD in one month.  During this same time period, outflows continued to grow rapidly as foreign inflows dropped almost 40%.In the past days, the CNY/CNH spread has drifted apart brought back…

The world and China is discussing in hushed tones the recent exclusive interview given by an “authoritative” person which talked about the need for China to deleverage and how debt cannot continue to increase.  Most have called this a shift in economic policy signaling Chinese intent to get the problem under control.I think we need to be much more cautious about interpreting this as any type of fundamental shift in policy.  Let me give you a number of reasons why.  First, in China an…

The world and China is discussing in hushed tones the recent exclusive interview given by an “authoritative” person which talked about the need for China to deleverage and how debt cannot continue to increase.  Most have called this a shift in economic policy signaling Chinese intent to get the problem under control.I think we need to be much more cautious about interpreting this as any type of fundamental shift in policy.  Let me give you a number of reasons why.  First, in China an…

The Authoritative Person and the Path of Chinese Growth

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.<ol><li>While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…</li></ol>

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100 Again its all about the US Dollar & upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters… DXY at 95.52...

Kay Van-Petersen

RMB Focus: It Was Too Good to Last

Despite the seeming aura of calm that had descended on the RMB and PBOC foreign exchange reserves the past few months, this was a deceptive peace. ...

Christopher Balding

The Authoritative Person and the Path of Chinese Growth

The world and China is discussing in hushed tones the recent exclusive interview given by an “authoritative” person which talked about the need for...

Christopher Balding

April Trade Data and FX Reserve

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured. April exports were...

Christopher Balding

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing. ...

Greg Gibbs

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