Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.</li>
<li>Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. </li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with wide premia trades seeing Hs perform the best vs their As.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile. Last week I recommended a HUGE trimming (30%) of the book.
Hindsight is 20:20. I should have kept them, but the book still produced 51bp of alpha for the week on top of the 35bp of H/A beta. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market</li>
<li>Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case</li>
<li>Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts</li>
</ul>


Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market
Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case
Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts


Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

<ul>
<li>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today</li>
<li>In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years</li>
<li>While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics</li>
</ul>


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics


China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

China Nonferrous Mining Corp / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.</li>
<li>This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.
This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia are down. AH Premia down low enough it seems further moves on narrow premia blue chips may need a policy move so playing curve torsion or...

Travis Lundy

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

This note is a weekly (Apr 11-17, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

We provided an update after China's Two Sessions and government policy on China property. There are increasing signs of government's support, but...

Jacob Cheng

China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

In this brief note, we put together the key China macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years, based on today's Jan-Dec...

Robert Ciemniak

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)