Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the expectations end of 2024. </li>
<li>"Less negative" summarises the data, while "Stabilise it" captures the policy approach.</li>
<li>New home sales are in line with our forecast, and in the upper range of group forecasts from China Property Outlook, but there are some new data caveats.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the expectations end of 2024. 
"Less negative" summarises the data, while "Stabilise it" captures the policy approach.
New home sales are in line with our forecast, and in the upper range of group forecasts from China Property Outlook, but there are some new data caveats.


<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.</li>
<li>The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.</li>
<li>The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.
The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.
The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.


China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

<ul>
<li>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today</li>
<li>In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years</li>
<li>While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics</li>
</ul>


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics


China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

<ul>
<li>The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China Housing - A Mid-Year Check

In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

In this brief note, we put together the key China macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years, based on today's Jan-Dec...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

China Property: The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less...

Robert Ciemniak

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)