Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; </li>
<li>Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? </li>
<li>We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.</li>
</ul>


As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.


Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We've been tracking the data on approved financing for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-the-red-hot-whitelists" target="_blank" rel="noopener">projects on the 'whitelist'</a> for over a year now, considering it a major factor in addressing the 'sold-not-completed' problem</li>
<li>New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024</li>
<li>There was a big acceleration in approvals in Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


We've been tracking the data on approved financing for the projects on the 'whitelist' for over a year now, considering it a major factor in addressing the 'sold-not-completed' problem
New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024
There was a big acceleration in approvals in Q4 2024


China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

<ul>
<li>We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.
You can now join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions</li>
<li>China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year</li>
<li>Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments</li>
</ul>


There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions
China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year
Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments


HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

China Housing: New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

We review the 2024 'Draw The Line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened and put it in the context of the past forecasts....

Robert Ciemniak

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

​Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

China Housing: New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

We review the 2024 'Draw The Line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened and put it in the context of the past forecasts....

Robert Ciemniak

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...