Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Airport High Tech A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.


CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Sep 11-17, 2026

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Indika Energy</li>
<li>UST yields were stable yesterday, with the curve twisting marginally flatter around the 10Y. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.81%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was stable at 4.32%. Equities rallied for a second day, on hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 0.7% and 1.2% to 6,575 and 21,841, respectively.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump delivered a 19-minute televised address at the White House this morning, mostly repeating previous remarks. Mr Trump said the US is "nearing completion" on its strategic objectives, but added that the military will be hitting Iran "extremely hard" over the next 2-3 weeks. Mr Trump also repeated calls for other nations to "build up the courage" to secure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or buy oil from the US instead. In the US, the March ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.7 (52.3 e / 52.4 p), driven by a jump in the prices paid index on account of the higher oil prices.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Indika Energy
UST yields were stable yesterday, with the curve twisting marginally flatter around the 10Y. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.81%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was stable at 4.32%. Equities rallied for a second day, on hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 0.7% and 1.2% to 6,575 and 21,841, respectively.
US President Donald Trump delivered a 19-minute televised address at the White House this morning, mostly repeating previous remarks. Mr Trump said the US is "nearing completion" on its strategic objectives, but added that the military will be hitting Iran "extremely hard" over the next 2-3 weeks. Mr Trump also repeated calls for other nations to "build up the courage" to secure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or buy oil from the US instead. In the US, the March ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.7 (52.3 e / 52.4 p), driven by a jump in the prices paid index on account of the higher oil prices.


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 14-20, 2026

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Sep 11-17, 2026

This note is a weekly (Sep 11-17, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Indika Energy

Lucror Analytics

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 14-20, 2026

This note is a weekly (August 14-20, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

There could be 8 adds and 3 deletes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY...

Brian Freitas

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Sep 11-17, 2026

This note is a weekly (Sep 11-17, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Indika Energy

Lucror Analytics

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 14-20, 2026

This note is a weekly (August 14-20, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak