Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

China Vanke’s FY 2023 numbers were somewhat soft in our view. While its top line and profitability declined in tandem with industry trends, the company's property development gross margin remained robust (relative to peers) at c. 15%. Negatively, OCF (after interest and tax) was weak and net debt continued to rise. Leverage and coverage metrics deteriorated, but remained at reasonable levels (vs. peers). Vanke’s liquidity at the holdco level is likely tight. In particular, the migration of bank borrowings to the project level has pressured the company’s holdco-level financing. The development may also indicate lenders’ reduced risk appetite towards Vanke. In addition, we view negatively that management did not disclose the amount of cash held under escrow restrictions. Moreover, it is unclear whether the Shenzhen government would provide extraordinary support (above and beyond market-oriented measures) to the company.

  China Vanke’s FY 2023 numbers were somewhat soft in our view. While its top line and profitability declined in tandem with industry trends, the company's property development gross margin remained robust (relative to peers) at c. 15%. Negatively, OCF (after interest and tax) was weak and net debt continued to rise. Leverage and coverage metrics deteriorated, but remained at reasonable levels (vs. peers).   Vanke’s liquidity at the holdco level is likely tight. In particular, the migration of bank borrowings to the project level has pressured the company’s holdco-level financing. The development may also indicate lenders’ reduced risk appetite towards Vanke. In addition, we view negatively that management did not disclose the amount of cash held under escrow restrictions. Moreover, it is unclear whether the Shenzhen government would provide extraordinary support (above and beyond market-oriented measures) to the company. 

China Vanke - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26076'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-173'>First Pacific Co</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-24409'>Xiaomi Corp</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Vanke First Pacific CoXiaomi Corp

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke  , First Pacific Co, Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26076'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8108'>Hopson Development</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Vanke Hopson Development

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke  , Hopson Development

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 124.6% as of Mar 22nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, utilities and offset by financials, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan, Hua Hong Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 124.6% as of Mar 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, utilities and offset by financials, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan, Hua Hong Semi.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 22nd): ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26076'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-30639'>Nickel Industries </a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Vanke Nickel Industries 

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke  , Nickel Industries 

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China Vanke - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

China Vanke’s FY 2023 numbers were somewhat soft in our view. While its top line and profitability declined in tandem with industry trends, the...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , First Pacific Co, Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Hopson Development

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 22nd): ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Nickel Industries

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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