Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.</li>
<li>Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. </li>
<li>Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.</li>
</ul>


Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. 
Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.


Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy</li>
<li>In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy
In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.
Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.


<ul>
<li>In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).</li>
<li>Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.</li>
<li>The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).
Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.
The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). 


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Vedanta Resources</li>
<li>Last Friday in the US, the ISM manufacturing index climbed to 49.3 in December (48.2 e / 48.4 p).</li>
<li>This was supported by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, which offset a decrease in the employment component. Separately, the final manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.4 in the month (48.3 e / 48.3 p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Vedanta Resources
Last Friday in the US, the ISM manufacturing index climbed to 49.3 in December (48.2 e / 48.4 p).
This was supported by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, which offset a decrease in the employment component. Separately, the final manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.4 in the month (48.3 e / 48.3 p).


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Airport High Tech A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.


CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds

Vanke’s repayment delay, falling sales, weak PMIs, and rising inventories signal persistent pressure on China’s iron-ore demand.

Mint Finance

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds

Vanke’s repayment delay, falling sales, weak PMIs, and rising inventories signal persistent pressure on China’s iron-ore demand.

Mint Finance

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

There could be 8 adds and 3 deletes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY...

Brian Freitas