Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quality developers are said to be supported by NAFMII to issue M&amp;A bonds with a long maturity to acquire real estate projects from troubled developers</li>
<li>This adds further fuel to the rumour that financing for M&amp;A activity will be outside of the three red lines</li>
<li>The Politburo December meeting provided a positive signal for property policy that is expected to be echoed in the Central Economic Work Conference statement this week</li>
</ul>


Quality developers are said to be supported by NAFMII to issue M&amp;A bonds with a long maturity to acquire real estate projects from troubled developers
This adds further fuel to the rumour that financing for M&amp;A activity will be outside of the three red lines
The Politburo December meeting provided a positive signal for property policy that is expected to be echoed in the Central Economic Work Conference statement this week


China State-Owned Developer Plans to Issue M&A Bonds on Interbank Market

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Evergrande did a "Friday night drop" saying it might not be able to continue to perform its financial obligations. The Guangdong govt called Chairman Hui on the carpet. </li>
<li>The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."</li>
<li>$82.5mm of coupons are due today at midnight. There is a demand for performance of a a guarantee on a US$260mm bond. Push has come to shove. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande did a "Friday night drop" saying it might not be able to continue to perform its financial obligations. The Guangdong govt called Chairman Hui on the carpet. 
The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."
$82.5mm of coupons are due today at midnight. There is a demand for performance of a a guarantee on a US$260mm bond. Push has come to shove. 


The Evergrande Quantum Kitty Living Its Ninth Life

<ul>
<li>The waiting time for mortgage loan issuance has reduced in Beijing, with the quota reportedly expected to increase early next year.</li>
<li>Some 8 cities loosened while 3 cities tightened in November</li>
<li>Measured and locally varied support should translate into improved home sales in certain markets and reduced default risks at most developers.</li>
</ul>


The waiting time for mortgage loan issuance has reduced in Beijing, with the quota reportedly expected to increase early next year.
Some 8 cities loosened while 3 cities tightened in November
Measured and locally varied support should translate into improved home sales in certain markets and reduced default risks at most developers.


Mortgage Issuance Seen Easing in Beijing and Other Tier 1 and Tier 2 Cities

<ul>
<li>The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII), held a discussion meeting joined by representatives from real estate developers.</li>
<li>The meeting could signal that regulators might ease domestic bond issuance for developers.</li>
<li>We believe that the market has been over-pessimistic on the real estate sector.</li>
</ul>


The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII), held a discussion meeting joined by representatives from real estate developers.
The meeting could signal that regulators might ease domestic bond issuance for developers.
We believe that the market has been over-pessimistic on the real estate sector.


Developers Said To Plan Raising Funds Through Interbank Debt Issuance

<ul>
<li>Property lending has reportedly improved significantly in both mom and yoy terms in October, with a preliminary estimates ranging from 150-200bn yuan increase on top of the September level.</li>
<li>Shenzhen recently announced the third and final batch of land parcels for sale this year.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>We see this as policy finetuning, rather than a broad easing</li>
<li>
<div>We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support.Longer-term investors are advised to look at developers with the potential of realising higher valuation by listing property management units, as has been done by other developers.</div>
</li>
</ul>


Property lending has reportedly improved significantly in both mom and yoy terms in October, with a preliminary estimates ranging from 150-200bn yuan increase on top of the September level.
Shenzhen recently announced the third and final batch of land parcels for sale this year.


We see this as policy finetuning, rather than a broad easing

We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support.Longer-term investors are advised to look at developers with the potential of realising higher valuation by listing property management units, as has been done by other developers.



Property Developer Dollar Bond Issuances Shrink, Shenzhen Tweaks Land Auction Rules

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China State-Owned Developer Plans to Issue M&A Bonds on Interbank Market

The new move adds further fuel to the rumour that financing for M&A activity will be outside of the three red lines,This is a crucial development...

Li Tang

The Evergrande Quantum Kitty Living Its Ninth Life

Evergrande filed a statement Friday saying debt repayment was a question mark. The Guangdong govt will send in a work group which is part of the...

Travis Lundy

Mortgage Issuance Seen Easing in Beijing and Other Tier 1 and Tier 2 Cities

We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support

Li Tang

Developers Said To Plan Raising Funds Through Interbank Debt Issuance

We believe that the market has been over-pessimistic on the real estate sector. The meeting could signal that regulators might ease domestic bond...

Li Tang

Property Developer Dollar Bond Issuances Shrink, Shenzhen Tweaks Land Auction Rules

We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support

Li Tang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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