Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.</li>
<li>We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> should be added in May.</li>
<li>We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.
We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) should be added in May.
We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Jan 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that Jan discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Jan 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by Chinese automakers, including BYD, Leapmotor and GAC Aion, and German brands, such as BMW and Audi. BYD plans to cover the majority of its models with autonomous driving (AD) functions this year, which may have resulted in higher discounts for its existing models. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jan 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that Jan discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Jan 2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven by Chinese automakers, including BYD, Leapmotor and GAC Aion, and German brands, such as BMW and Audi. BYD plans to cover the majority of its models with autonomous driving (AD) functions this year, which may have resulted in higher discounts for its existing models. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Leap, BYD, Aion Led Discount Increase in Jan

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

China

China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Ltd. retails passenger vehicles. The Company sells new and used vehicles and offers automobile rentals. China Yongda Automobiles also provides service.

China Yongda Automobile Services Hldg (3669 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Yongda Automobile Services Hldg (3669 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 29 adds/ 41 deletes for the HSCI in March. We expect 27 inclusions and 28 deletions for Southbound Stock Connect. There are big holdings...

Brian Freitas

Auto - Leap, BYD, Aion Led Discount Increase in Jan

Note that Jan discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2025...

CMB International

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)