Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Titan: Titan’s top-line growth remains healthy. Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 119bn</li><li>Ex-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growth</li><li>The key take from the Q1 print was the preference for market share gain over margins</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: Titan’s top-line growth remains healthy. Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 119bnEx-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growthThe key take from the Q1 print was the preference for market share gain over marginsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Ambuja Cement, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter, CIFC reported a healthy disbursement growth of 50% YoY led by robust growth across segments, however declined by 4.8% QoQ.</li><li>AUM continued to report strong growth of 40/8% YoY/QoQ, with VF/Home Loans/LAP/New Businesses growing at 28/60/29/286% YoY respectively.</li><li>Margins reported a contraction of 70/50 bps YoY/QoQ due to spike in cost of funds.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter, CIFC reported a healthy disbursement growth of 50% YoY led by robust growth across segments, however declined by 4.8% QoQ.AUM continued to report strong growth of 40/8% YoY/QoQ, with VF/Home Loans/LAP/New Businesses growing at 28/60/29/286% YoY respectively.Margins reported a contraction of 70/50 bps YoY/QoQ due to spike in cost of funds.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cholamandalam Invst. & Finance Company Ltd. - Growth Visibility Healthy; Maintain BUY!

<ul><li>Rural India’s economic recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic has been a much debated topic over the past year, and rightfully so</li><li>Accounting for ~45% of the country’s GVA, the rural economic recovery bodes well for corporate revenues and the Indian economy as a whole</li><li>Our report is a bottom-up analysis of the Indian rural economy by looking at state-specific rural characteristics and performances</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rural India’s economic recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic has been a much debated topic over the past year, and rightfully soAccounting for ~45% of the country’s GVA, the rural economic recovery bodes well for corporate revenues and the Indian economy as a wholeOur report is a bottom-up analysis of the Indian rural economy by looking at state-specific rural characteristics and performancesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rural India - State-Wise Divergences Evident in Recovery Phase

<ul><li>Q1FY24 earnings season was marked by a) Strong domestic macroeconomic environment, b) Sequential improvement in high-frequency indicators, 3) Cool-off in key commodity prices, 4) Easing inflation expectations, and 5) Growth challenges in export-oriented demand.</li></ul><div><ul><li>Moreover, domestic-facing sectors are enjoying economic recovery as well.</li><li>Considering these factors collectively, the Q1FY24 earnings season is likely to deliver positive surprises on the margins front. </li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY24 earnings season was marked by a) Strong domestic macroeconomic environment, b) Sequential improvement in high-frequency indicators, 3) Cool-off in key commodity prices, 4) Easing inflation expectations, and 5) Growth challenges in export-oriented demand.Moreover, domestic-facing sectors are enjoying economic recovery as well.Considering these factors collectively, the Q1FY24 earnings season is likely to deliver positive surprises on the margins front. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited operates as a financial services provider. The Company offers vehicle finance, home equity loans, investment advisory, stock broking, and other financial services to customers.

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC IN)

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Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Ambuja Cement, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Ex-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growth

HDFC Securities

Cholamandalam Invst. & Finance Company Ltd. - Growth Visibility Healthy; Maintain BUY!

Despite Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter, CIFC reported a healthy disbursement growth of 50% YoY led by robust growth across segments, however...

Axis Direct

Rural India - State-Wise Divergences Evident in Recovery Phase

Rural India’s economic recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic has been a much debated topic over the past year, and rightfully so

HDFC Securities

Q1FY24 Consolidated Preview

Considering these factors collectively, the Q1FY24 earnings season is likely to deliver positive surprises on the margins front.

Axis Direct

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