ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has received a no-objection notice from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> for its plan to revive its intention to spin-off its brewery assets, predominantly in Thailand and Vietnam, raising US$2.0- US$2.5bn and potentially valuing the company at over US$10.0bn. We see the IPO of its BeerCo as a major catalyst for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> share price.
The spin-off will help the company realize the value of its brewery assets, where the implied valuation current sits at only US$5.5bn. This should be a positive trigger for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> share price.  
A beer-drinking recovery is underway with anecdotal evidence and channel checks suggesting that there is a pick up in beer demand in both Thailand and in Vietnam. This evidence comes from conversations with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB),</a> which is a leader in both glass bottling and aluminum cans.
Thailand is by nature a more resilient market given the fact that Thai people are not shy of drinking at home, whereas Vietnamese tend to enjoy a drink outside the home. Vietnam has seen very little impact from COVID-19, after strict lockdowns last year, which suggest a strong rebound in 2021. A pick-up in tourism is a further potential major catalyst for Thailand.
We have updated our sum of the parts analysis on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> and find that there is at least a 10% upside from our current target price should the IPO of the BeerCo go ahead as planned. Even under our most conservative assumptions, we see more than +30% upside.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has received a no-objection notice from SGX (SGX SP) for its plan to revive its intention to spin-off its brewery assets, predominantly in Thailand and Vietnam, raising US$2.0- US$2.5bn and potentially valuing the company at over US$10.0bn. We see the IPO of its BeerCo as a major catalyst for Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) share price.
The spin-off will help the company realize the value of its brewery assets, where the implied valuation current sits at only US$5.5bn. This should be a positive trigger for the Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) share price.  
A beer-drinking recovery is underway with anecdotal evidence and channel checks suggesting that there is a pick up in beer demand in both Thailand and in Vietnam. This evidence comes from conversations with Berli Jucker (BJC TB), which is a leader in both glass bottling and aluminum cans.
Thailand is by nature a more resilient market given the fact that Thai people are not shy of drinking at home, whereas Vietnamese tend to enjoy a drink outside the home. Vietnam has seen very little impact from COVID-19, after strict lockdowns last year, which suggest a strong rebound in 2021. A pick-up in tourism is a further potential major catalyst for Thailand.
We have updated our sum of the parts analysis on Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) and find that there is at least a 10% upside from our current target price should the IPO of the BeerCo go ahead as planned. Even under our most conservative assumptions, we see more than +30% upside. 

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - Beer Aids Recovery

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has seen some impact from COVID-19 this year both as a result of lockdowns and the closure of entertainment establishments. Thai's have demonstrated their healthy appetite for alcohol and have shifted to consumption at home, with some heavy stocking up ahead of the country's temporary alcohol ban. 
The fact that off-trade makes up 95% of sales of beer and 80% of spirits sales in Thailand has helped the company weather the COVID-19 storm in Thailand, as customers stocked up. 
Vietnamese customers of SABECO have been less resilient, given the cultural preference to consume beer outside the home but given the success of the country's lockdown measures, normality is returning relatively quickly. 
The company's spirits business has also remained relatively resilient with the launch of a number of new variants with a reining back on promotions helping to save on costs. 
The spin-off of the company's beer operations remains a longer-term strategy although may be delayed depending on how quickly demand picks up. An early resumption of foreign tourist arrivals would also provide a welcome boost to demand at the margin.  
This year will likely see flat performance but we would expect a strong recovery to take shape over the next few months. The company is trading at a discount to regional peers on an EV/EBITDA basis on 16.0x FY20 and 14.3x FY21E.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has seen some impact from COVID-19 this year both as a result of lockdowns and the closure of entertainment establishments. Thai's have demonstrated their healthy appetite for alcohol and have shifted to consumption at home, with some heavy stocking up ahead of the country's temporary alcohol ban. 
The fact that off-trade makes up 95% of sales of beer and 80% of spirits sales in Thailand has helped the company weather the COVID-19 storm in Thailand, as customers stocked up. 
Vietnamese customers of SABECO have been less resilient, given the cultural preference to consume beer outside the home but given the success of the country's lockdown measures, normality is returning relatively quickly. 
The company's spirits business has also remained relatively resilient with the launch of a number of new variants with a reining back on promotions helping to save on costs. 
The spin-off of the company's beer operations remains a longer-term strategy although may be delayed depending on how quickly demand picks up. An early resumption of foreign tourist arrivals would also provide a welcome boost to demand at the margin.  
This year will likely see flat performance but we would expect a strong recovery to take shape over the next few months. The company is trading at a discount to regional peers on an EV/EBITDA basis on 16.0x FY20 and 14.3x FY21E.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - It's Time to Bring Out the Beer Please

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

With RS uptrends intact we continue to recommend Sector overweights to MSCI EM Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communications. Materials remains an attractive cyclical value Sector as both price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. In this report we offer a number of attractive set ups with the EM universe across sectors.

With RS uptrends intact we continue to recommend Sector overweights to MSCI EM Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communications. Materials remains an attractive cyclical value Sector as both price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. In this report we offer a number of attractive set ups with the EM universe across sectors.  

Global Equity Chart Book: Stick With EM Over EAFE

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap important technical levels across market as well as Actionable Themes within the Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Technology sectors.

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is likely and that the path of least resistance is lower for global equities. Considering the damage done to major indexes around the world, any potential bottom is likely to take months to develop and until we see evidence of this repair process we want to be positioned primarily in Sectors with defensive characteristics. Of course, there will be major countertrend rallies along the way, but for now the trend is lower and we would treat rallies as selling opportunities. We outline important technical levels across all markets and highlight actionable opportunities within EM, and the Services and Staples Sectors.

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

China

Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets beer products.  The Company also produces medical preparations and capsules.

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Chongqing Brewery Co A (600132 CH)

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - Beer Aids Recovery

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has revived its intention to spin-off its brewery assets, predominantly in Thailand and Vietnam, potentially valuing the...

Angus Mackintosh

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - It's Time to Bring Out the Beer Please

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has seen some impact from COVID-19 this year both as a result of lockdowns and the closure of entertainment...

Angus Mackintosh

Global Equity Chart Book: Stick With EM Over EAFE

With RS uptrends intact we continue to recommend Sector overweights to MSCI EM Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communications....

Vermilion Research

Battleground Spot For Global Equities

The risk of a pullback remains very real, however at this point the weight of the evidence suggests a meaningful pullback is not imminent. We recap...

Vermilion Research

ACWI Below Our Line In The Sand: Further Weakness Expected

With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) breaking below our $70 “line in the sand” support level we highlighted last week, we believe additional downside is...

Vermilion Research

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