Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




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China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There is little evidence of any major economic shutdown in China during early this year. There is also little evidence of the period when China re-opened its economy only to find most all other economies were closed. It was arguably an especially difficult period for China and its banks. Where many banks have now reported their results, it becomes clearer that the numbers hardly reflect crisis - temporary or otherwise. This though is not what really matters; rather it is the implication for profit delta during 2H20.

There is little evidence of any major economic shutdown in China during early this year. There is also little evidence of the period when China re-opened its economy only to find most all other economies were closed. It was arguably an especially difficult period for China and its banks. Where many banks have now reported their results, it becomes clearer that the numbers hardly reflect crisis - temporary or otherwise. This though is not what really matters; rather it is the implication for profit delta during 2H20.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 185 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 80.2% as of Jun 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, consumer discretionary and offset by energy, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, China Coal, Remegen, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 185 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 80.2% as of Jun 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, consumer discretionary and offset by energy, industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, China Coal, Remegen, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 19th): China Longyuan, China Coal, Remegen, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H

For the most part, China bank’s 1H18 profit growth YoY (and 2Q18 YoY) is from realized and unrealized trading gains, investment gains and fair value gains. The largest four banks are the only major exceptions due to significant low-cost deposits and expansive sticky customer base. From the commentary that we have heard on China banks’ 1H18 earnings, we do not believe the focus is on the underlying reality.  There are negative implications where earnings quality is worsening considerably, while at the same time, it is likely that 2H18 is fundamentally worse, thereby making putting further pressure on core income and profit growth.

For the most part, China bank’s 1H18 profit growth YoY (and 2Q18 YoY) is from realized and unrealized trading gains, investment gains and fair value gains. The largest four banks are the only major exceptions due to significant low-cost deposits and expansive sticky customer base. From the commentary that we have heard on China banks’ 1H18 earnings, we do not believe the focus is on the underlying reality.  There are negative implications where earnings quality is worsening considerably, while at the same time, it is likely that 2H18 is fundamentally worse, thereby making putting further pressure on core income and profit growth.

China Banks – Profit Growth Is Only From Securities Gains

China

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides a comprehensive range of banking and financial services in China, operating through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Financial Market Operations segments. Its offerings include corporate and personal loans, deposits, wealth management, trade finance, and interbank activities. The bank is headquartered in Chongqing, China, and was founded in 1951.

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Banks – Muted Profit Delta

The profile for provision expenses and profits at China's banks during 1H20 is wholly different to many others globally.

Daniel Tabbush

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 19th): China Longyuan, China Coal, Remegen, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan, China Coal, Remegen, Yangtze Optical Fibre...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks – Profit Growth Is Only From Securities Gains

For the most part, China bank’s 1H18 profit growth YoY (and 2Q18 YoY) is from realized and unrealized trading gains, investment gains and fair...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)