HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China plans to issue ultra long-term special treasury bond (about RMB1 trillion) to promote large-scale medical equipment renewal, which is expected to boost domestic demand in medical device sector. </li>
<li>Various regions (e.g. Beijing, Hainan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai) have issued separate supporting policies for innovative drug industry. It may be too early to completely lose hope of Chinese innovative drugs.</li>
<li>There is “horizontal competition” issue between Taiji and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shyndec-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1952:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical (600420 CH)</a>, which is the underlying logic for potential spin-offs and integrations within Taiji and China TCM before 2025.</li>
</ul>


China plans to issue ultra long-term special treasury bond (about RMB1 trillion) to promote large-scale medical equipment renewal, which is expected to boost domestic demand in medical device sector. 
Various regions (e.g. Beijing, Hainan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai) have issued separate supporting policies for innovative drug industry. It may be too early to completely lose hope of Chinese innovative drugs.
There is “horizontal competition” issue between Taiji and Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical (600420 CH), which is the underlying logic for potential spin-offs and integrations within Taiji and China TCM before 2025.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr14)- Shanghai Shyndec Pharma,Innovative Drug Policy,Ultra Long-Term Bond

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since “no dividend was proposed for the year ended 31 December 2023”, the privatization is highly likely to succeed. It may not be wise for investors to bet against privatization.</li>
<li>The recent high-level personnel changes in Taiji is “thought-provoking”, which seems to be preparing for the next step of integrating with China TCM. Spin-offs and integrations are expected within Taiji.</li>
<li>We analyzed possible playbook. In this way, CNPGC is able to solve the problem of horizontal competition. China TCM could also relist in A-share to gain higher valuations/better liquidity.</li>
</ul>


Since “no dividend was proposed for the year ended 31 December 2023”, the privatization is highly likely to succeed. It may not be wise for investors to bet against privatization.
The recent high-level personnel changes in Taiji is “thought-provoking”, which seems to be preparing for the next step of integrating with China TCM. Spin-offs and integrations are expected within Taiji.
We analyzed possible playbook. In this way, CNPGC is able to solve the problem of horizontal competition. China TCM could also relist in A-share to gain higher valuations/better liquidity.


China TCM (570.HK) - Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the past few years, a big problem of Taiji is weak performance/low valuation. The main purpose of mixed-ownership reform with CNPGC is to improve operational efficiency and enhance profitability.</li>
<li>CNPGC made a clear commitment to solve the horizontal competition issue. So, after the privatization of China TCM is completed, it's worth noting whether it will be merged into Taiji.</li>
<li>2024 is expected to see Taiji launch new M&amp;A deals, which would bring a qualitative leap for Taiji. Market value of Taiji is expected to at least double. </li>
</ul>


In the past few years, a big problem of Taiji is weak performance/low valuation. The main purpose of mixed-ownership reform with CNPGC is to improve operational efficiency and enhance profitability.
CNPGC made a clear commitment to solve the horizontal competition issue. So, after the privatization of China TCM is completed, it's worth noting whether it will be merged into Taiji.
2024 is expected to see Taiji launch new M&amp;A deals, which would bring a qualitative leap for Taiji. Market value of Taiji is expected to at least double. 


Will China TCM (570.HK) Be Incorporated into Taiji Group (600129.CH)? –If Yes, Valuation Will Double

<ul>
<li>Since China TCM doesn’t deny the rumors so far after the trading halt, privatization is becoming likely this time.Rumor said formal negotiations may not begin until after the Lantern Festival.</li>
<li>CNPGC may not want to pay high prices on privatization.Weak sentiment/share price may help with the negotiations.But the key is to obtain the consent of other shareholders, especially Ping An.</li>
<li>There’s underlying logic for Taiji Group to drive this privatization. A price of higher than HKD5.1 is possible. If the price could reach HKD6 (or higher), it has exceeded expectations.</li>
</ul>


Since China TCM doesn’t deny the rumors so far after the trading halt, privatization is becoming likely this time.Rumor said formal negotiations may not begin until after the Lantern Festival.
CNPGC may not want to pay high prices on privatization.Weak sentiment/share price may help with the negotiations.But the key is to obtain the consent of other shareholders, especially Ping An.
There’s underlying logic for Taiji Group to drive this privatization. A price of higher than HKD5.1 is possible. If the price could reach HKD6 (or higher), it has exceeded expectations.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - New Information on Privatization

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The pre-condition relates to various Chinese regulatory approvals. As SOE entities own the offeror, regulatory approvals will be a formality. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, which holds a blocking stake, will be supportive. The offer is fair when the previously (higher) rumoured offers are adjusted for the market downturn. </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The pre-condition relates to various Chinese regulatory approvals. As SOE entities own the offeror, regulatory approvals will be a formality. The offer price is final. 

Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), which holds a blocking stake, will be supportive. The offer is fair when the previously (higher) rumoured offers are adjusted for the market downturn. 


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Sinopharm-Led Pre-Conditional Offer at HK$4.60

China

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets medicines, healthcare products, medical packing products, and medical instruments.  The Company also imports and exports Chinese medicine materials and medical packing materials.

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr14)- Shanghai Shyndec Pharma,Innovative Drug Policy,Ultra Long-Term Bond

China will issue special treasury bonds for healthcare.New policy boosts hope for innovative drugs.Horizontal competition in Taiji and Shanghai...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TCM (570.HK) - Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group

The privatization is highly likely to succeed. It's not wise for investors to bet against privatization.Taiji's high-level personnel changes...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Will China TCM (570.HK) Be Incorporated into Taiji Group (600129.CH)? –If Yes, Valuation Will Double

Under the leadership of CNPGC, Taiji has entered the right track, with significant performance growth.If China TCM is ultimately merged into Taiji...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - New Information on Privatization

The price of HK$4.6 is below many people's expectation. In the context of the need for substantial implementation of SOE integration in 2024, Ping...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Sinopharm-Led Pre-Conditional Offer at HK$4.60

The offer is attractive to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. Ping An, which holds a blocking stake, will be supportive. This looks like...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr14)- Shanghai Shyndec Pharma,Innovative Drug Policy,Ultra Long-Term Bond

​China will issue special treasury bonds for healthcare.New policy boosts hope for innovative drugs.Horizontal competition in Taiji and Shanghai...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TCM (570.HK) - Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group

The privatization is highly likely to succeed. It's not wise for investors to bet against privatization.Taiji's high-level personnel changes...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Will China TCM (570.HK) Be Incorporated into Taiji Group (600129.CH)? –If Yes, Valuation Will Double

Under the leadership of CNPGC, Taiji has entered the right track, with significant performance growth.If China TCM is ultimately merged into Taiji...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - New Information on Privatization

The price of HK$4.6 is below many people's expectation. In the context of the need for substantial implementation of SOE integration in 2024, Ping...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Sinopharm-Led Pre-Conditional Offer at HK$4.60

The offer is attractive to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. Ping An, which holds a blocking stake, will be supportive. This looks like...

Arun George

China will issue special treasury bonds for healthcare.New policy boosts hope for innovative drugs.Horizontal competition in Taiji and Shanghai...