HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ukraine "miraculously" turned the tide of war, making Russia to consider whether they’re facing Ukraine or the Pentagon/NATO? There could be "entry of new members". The balance could tilt again.</li>
<li>The Russia-Ukraine war is also a cruel world economic war. We analyzed the impact on healthcare industry (both opportunities and challenges).</li>
<li>Overall, the first episode of the Russia-Ukraine war has ended and entered a serious new phase. The game between the US and Russia would last for a long time.</li>
</ul>


Ukraine "miraculously" turned the tide of war, making Russia to consider whether they’re facing Ukraine or the Pentagon/NATO? There could be "entry of new members". The balance could tilt again.
The Russia-Ukraine war is also a cruel world economic war. We analyzed the impact on healthcare industry (both opportunities and challenges).
Overall, the first episode of the Russia-Ukraine war has ended and entered a serious new phase. The game between the US and Russia would last for a long time.


Russia-Ukraine War Episode 2 - The Balance Could Tilt Again and Its Impact on Healthcare Industry

<ul>
<li>It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.</li>
<li>If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know "when to participate in this story" and "when to exit".</li>
<li>Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.</li>
</ul>


It is estimated that a large number of biotech companies will be liquidated or willing to be acquired at low prices starting from the second half of 2023.
If strictly speaking, the so-called import substitution is not really good logic, but investors need to know "when to participate in this story" and "when to exit".
Economic downturn would lead to consumption downgrade. We suggest that investors temporarily avoid medical companies with consumption attributes, since we have concerns on their performance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

<ul>
<li>NHSA will set aside a certain market to provide space for innovative medical devices/consumables to explore the market in addition to centralized procurement. However, we tend to be cautiously optimistic.</li>
<li>We think it is important to clarify for investors what constitutes "commercialization success" – That is to generate revenue at scale and stable profitability through the sale of drugs.</li>
<li>All the products that covered by VBP begin to lose logic. Don't be fooled by those positive interpretations. We are bearish on the sectors with downward logic in long cycle. </li>
</ul>


NHSA will set aside a certain market to provide space for innovative medical devices/consumables to explore the market in addition to centralized procurement. However, we tend to be cautiously optimistic.
We think it is important to clarify for investors what constitutes "commercialization success" – That is to generate revenue at scale and stable profitability through the sale of drugs.
All the products that covered by VBP begin to lose logic. Don't be fooled by those positive interpretations. We are bearish on the sectors with downward logic in long cycle. 


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep9)-Innovative Device Policy,Commercial Success Definition,Don't Be Fooled

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The newly released education and training policy increased the short-term volatility in healthcare sector, especially those subsectors with high valuation.</li>
<li>Recently, the Nanjing COVID-19 outbreak (the Delta variant) has spread widely in China.</li>
<li>Favorable policies would support the further expansion of anti-HIV drug market in China. </li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs and R&amp;D Center of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cstone-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27882:1" rel="noopener">CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jacobio-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29696:1" rel="noopener">Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1167 HK)</a>.Market review: Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.9%, while CSI 300 increased 2.29% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The newly released education and training policy increased the short-term volatility in healthcare sector, especially those subsectors with high valuation.
Recently, the Nanjing COVID-19 outbreak (the Delta variant) has spread widely in China.
Favorable policies would support the further expansion of anti-HIV drug market in China. 
Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs and R&amp;D Center of CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK), Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) and Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1167 HK).Market review: Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.9%, while CSI 300 increased 2.29% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Medical institutions in 10 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) have implemented the alliance volume-based purchase (VBP) of commonly used drugs and drugs that in short supply.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 vaccine has entered the second half of development.</li>
<li>From January to April this year, the number of CDE acceptance increased significantly compared with the same period last year</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated M&amp;A deal and new progress on drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hygeia-healthcare-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28875:1" rel="noopener">Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luye-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:488:1" rel="noopener">Luye Pharma (2186 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a>.Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.9%, while CSI 300 increased 3.64% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
Medical institutions in 10 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) have implemented the alliance volume-based purchase (VBP) of commonly used drugs and drugs that in short supply.
The COVID-19 vaccine has entered the second half of development.
From January to April this year, the number of CDE acceptance increased significantly compared with the same period last year
Company news:News about the updated M&amp;A deal and new progress on drugs of Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Luye Pharma (2186 HK) and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK).Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 0.9%, while CSI 300 increased 3.64% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

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Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Russia-Ukraine War Episode 2 - The Balance Could Tilt Again and Its Impact on Healthcare Industry

The first episode of Russia-Ukraine war has ended and entered a new phase.As it becomes "small world war",the balance may tilt again. It's also a...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.7)- Biotech Accept Reality, Import Substitution Logic, Consumer Medical

Although unwilling, biotech will face the harshest truth in 2023; Import substitution isn't good logic. Investors should know "when to join" &...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep9)-Innovative Device Policy,Commercial Success Definition,Don't Be Fooled

We recommend cautiously optimistic about new innovative device policy. It's important to clarify what constitutes "commercialization success". All...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.6)

The insight mainly analyzed increasing short-term volatility in healthcare sector by newly released education policy, Nanjing COVID-19 outbreak,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.28)

This article mainly analyzed the two new alliance volume-based purchase documents, COVID-19 vaccine development, CDE acceptance of biological...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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